289 FXAK69 PAFG 242108 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 108 PM AKDT Fri Jun 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Across the Interior clearing and warmer, though smoke may inhibit some of the warming if it thickens, otherwise its impacts will be to visibility across the area. Temperatures warmer with drier conditions through the weekend. Southeast to south flow continues on the West Coast with cloudy conditions and occasional showers, while the inland areas will be partly to mostly cloudy. The Arctic will see some breaks in the clouds overnight with offshore flow and warming temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Models...24/12Z solutions again show good short term agreement, but the latest GFS solution is showing low development on the West Coast that it had not been previously. Ridging building north over the state is being handled well by the solutions as the longwave trough moves to the Dateline. Convective indicies are not very impressive, but there is fair potential southeast of the Tok Cutoff on Sunday for some isolated thunderstorm activity. As the ridging continues to build in the Interior expect warming temperatures through the weekend. Same approach as yesterday with the forecast, so will be using a blend of solutions for the all elements with a lean toward the Canadian for the winds, and the NAM for precipitation. Aloft...At 500 hpa...The trough moving across the state lies over Oliktok Point to Arctic Village to McCarthy while ridging to the west has moved over the West Coast and Western Interior. The primary trough will exit east tonight as the ridging continues to build over the West Coast and Interior, and a weaker secondary trough moves northeast across the Arctic north of the Brooks Range, while the longwave trough to the west will move to the Dateline. Ridging will continue to build north and slide east as a 580 dam center develops and moves just east of Kodiak City Saturday morning. High will move over the Copper River Basin by Sunday afternoon keeping south flow over most of the forecast area as the longwave trough stalls near the Dateline. At 850 hpa...Cooler air pushing in from the northwest will bring temperatures down through Friday afternoon in the Interior, then they rebound pretty rapidly as the ridging aloft turns the flow from the south. A secondary pool of cool air will move across the Northwest and Central Arctic Friday, then across the Eastern Arctic waters and Beaufort Sea Saturday. Temperatures south and east of the Yukon River will be pushing into the mid and upper teens above through the middle of next week. Surface...High pressure will prevail south of the Brooks range as it continues to push north into the area. A 1028 mb high has moved to Norton Sound, with a 1028 mb high in Prince William Sound, a 1026 mb high near Atigun Pass, and a 1025 mb high continues to build in MacKenzie Bay. Low pressure is mainly west of 170W, but is pushing into the Western Arctic, as a 1002 mb low near Wrangel Island is moving north along the Dateline, while a 1002 mb low 150 nm north of Amchitka is also moving north along the Dateline in the Bering Sea. Saturday afternoon high pressure will be anchored by a 1023 mb high near Fairbanks, with a 1022 mb high in the Upper Tanana Valley, and a 1030 mb high will be just south of the Gulf of Alaska, and a 1022 mb high will be in Norton Bay with high pressure pushing west into the Bering Sea. The high that was in MacKenzie Bay will be just southwest of Banks Island at 1028 mb. Low pressure to the west will be pushing into the West Coast with leeside troughing developing north of the Brooks Range, and the low near Amchitka will move to the Pribilofs at 1006 mb. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Cloudy, showers, patchy fog, with offshore flow. Some breaks in the clouds, Saturday. Temperatures warming with the offshore flow to above climatological normals with highs in the mid 50s to mid 70s this weekend, and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Warmest in the inland areas and Brooks Range. Winds generally southeast to southwest 10 to 20 mph. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy with isolated to scattered showers along the coast. Inland partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of wildfire smoke in the inland areas. Winds inland becoming variable to 10 mph. Along the coast southeast winds to 20 mph becoming south Saturday at 15 to 30 mph with the strongest winds through the Bering Strait and across the Chukchi Sea. Temperatures near climatological normals with highs along the coast in the upper 40s and 50s, while inland they will be in the 60s to lower 70s. Lows mainly in the 40s to mid 50s. Central and Eastern Interior...Partly to mostly cloudy through the weekend with warmer and drier conditions. Expect smoke from wildfires to linger across the Interior with visibility reduced near the fires at times. Winds variable, mainly southwest to 10 mph through the weekend. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s Saturday and Sunday, but smoke may keep temperatures in some areas slightly cooler. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...For the Interior, including the Western Interior, expect slightly above climatological normal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80, while lows will be in the mid to upper 50s. Slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoons. For the West Coast cloudy conditions will prevail with scattered showers and near climatological normals for temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Not much change for the Arctic with cloudy conditions along the coast, some breaks in the inland areas and Brooks Range, with some showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High in the Arctic range from the 50s along the coast to 60s inland and lows in the 30s and 40s. && .Fire Weather...Clearing skies through the weekend with warmer and drier conditions. Smoke will keep some areas from reaching the warmer temperatures. Some Isolated thunderstorms are expected southeast of the Tok Cutoff Sunday. Temperatures warming into the 70s to lower 80s this weekend with Relative Humidity values falling into the teens and 20s from Tanana east through the weekend with poor overnight recovery. Winds from the southwest and west less than 10 mph becoming variable less than 10 mph for the weekend. && .Hydrology...No concerns at this time. The Tanana River is running near bankfull and expected to remain near bankfull through the week. With elevated freezing levels more water is expected to make its way into the drainages this week. Water levels in the remainder of the drainages are expect to remain steady or slowly fall as shower activity is not expected in most areas through the middle of next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-PKZ210-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ220- PKZ225-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ225. && $$ SDB JUN 22