146 FXUS64 KBMX 221818 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022 .UPDATE... Midday Update and 18Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ Through Thursday. The heat is on across Central Alabama, with mid to upper 90s observed across all of the area as of midday with a few spots hitting 100. The 595 decameter ridge remains centered off to our west and will maintain control of the weather pattern the next couple of days. For the most part, highs were little changed except for a few locations were bumped up a degree. Many locations will be close to the 100 degree mark by the peak heating hours this afternoon except for across the far eastern counties with the continued northerly to northeasterly flow at the surface. Highest heat indices between 100 and 106 are currently observed across the western and northwest counties as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s. The Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 6pm this evening as a result. As high-res guidance previously indicated, there are a few showers on radar that have developed over in Mississippi, with cumulus development across west Alabama. Have kept the isolated wording in the forecast for this afternoon to account for the very short-lived convective activity as a result. If we somehow get an updraft or two to develop, gusty winds will be likely with lots of dry air aloft and DCAPE values coming in between 1400 and 1700 J/kg. Again, development should remain very limited. A very muggy night is expected again tonight followed by more of the same during the day on Thursday. At this time, we've opted to hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory with heat indices just below criteria, but we can certainly re-evaluate based on latest forecast trends through the evening and overnight. The upper ridge actually begins to retrograde westward as we go into Thursday afternoon and upper heights ever so slightly decrease. Nevertheless, we'll be very hot once again with most spots in the upper 90s or low 100s. Western and southern locations have the best chance to hit 100 by Thursday afternoon. With the ridge slowly moving westward, an upper trough will begin to dive southward into the southern Appalachian states. A weak surface front will move southward toward the Tennessee River valley and additional isolated showers & storms will be possible, but coverage should remain very limited. 56/GDG .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0325 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/ Friday through Tuesday. /The grip of hot weather loosens early next week; spells of showers and storms expected/ Lower dew points are progged across much of central Alabama on Friday in wake of a weak frontal passage on Thursday. The southeast portion of our forecast area could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm due to influence from a trough reflection located to the east, where shower and thunderstorm chances will be maximized. The GFS and ECMWF then bring this feature farther westward into the weekend, with shower and thunderstorm potential following suit to include more of the area. Thereafter, models continue to show a front arriving early next week as a trough axis swings across the Great Lakes region. This will result in additional shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday along the front. This overall progression is supported by ensembles. Temperatures will be hottest on the front end of the forecast period/Friday and Saturday. Many locations are projected to get well into the 90s, some across the Black Belt hitting 100. Sunday should be a bit of a transition day, still hot, as we trend toward more in the way of lower 90s and even some upper 80s Monday and Tuesday with the arrival of the front. Dew points will be on the increase starting on Saturday, so the mugginess factor will be present after a brief break on Friday. 89^GSatterwhite && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. VFR conditions with light surface winds can be expected through the period. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot weather continues today through the end of the week in Central AL. Min RHs today will be in the 30-40% range for most of the area, though locations south and east of I-85 could drop into the mid to upper 20s if we see effective daytime mixing. Min RHs will continue to run in the 30-40% range through at least Friday. Generally light northerly to northwesterly winds will persist through the end of the week as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 97 67 97 70 / 0 10 0 0 0 Anniston 71 96 69 96 72 / 0 20 0 10 0 Birmingham 74 98 71 97 74 / 10 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 74 100 72 98 73 / 10 20 10 0 0 Calera 74 96 72 96 74 / 10 20 10 0 0 Auburn 74 98 74 96 74 / 0 20 10 10 10 Montgomery 75 101 75 101 75 / 0 20 10 10 10 Troy 75 100 76 100 74 / 0 20 10 10 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga...Bibb...Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee... Chilton...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene... Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...Marengo...Marion... Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter... Talladega...Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. && $$