229 FXUS61 KCTP 191845 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 19 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move overhead tonight. A warm front will push in from the west slowly early this week. Temperatures will build back above normal for mid-week before a cold front pushes through and dries things up by the next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure will remain in control as it slides into western PA overnight. Moisture/clouds will spill over the upper ridge, but stay mainly over the western third/half of the state. Forecast problem of the night will be to determine how much/thick/low clouds will be by the end of the night. The cloud cover will determine the temps in the west (and to a smaller extent in the east). The mins should hang up close to blended guidance in the NW. The E will likely be a little cooler than NBM. Have followed MET and MAV blend over the east. Some places will again get into the 40s, except maybe some hill tops in the srn mtns and urban centers of the Lower Susq. Most models produce a few light showers/patches of rain over the west by morning, but few if any make measurable liquid. Will keep PoPs very much continuous wrt going fcst. There could be a little fog form in the valleys of the NE overnight as the wind goes (nearly) calm in most locations, and there shouldn't be much cloud cover, and that which may be would be high clouds. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Warm front inches east thru the short term, but not pushing thru past the central mtns before 12Z Tues. The coverage/chance for very light showers/rain increases and slides east through the day on Monday, peaking Mon night. But, PoPs above 50pct for any single hour are difficult to justify with a big spread in placement and rate of precip amongst the num guid. Maxes Monday will be higher E than W, and we've knocked a deg or two off the NBM for the W. Some places will not get above 65F in the higher elevs. Clouds and light SW wind should keep temps up in the 50s and lower 60s (SE) on Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper ridging anchored across the mid-Mississippi Valley will gradually make its influence felt across central PA as heights rise through Tuesday, bringing the return of summertime temperatures. Precipitation chances return for Monday on the northeast periphery of the ridge, with the best chances across the northern mountains farther displaced from the core of the ridge. Storm chances increase for Wednesday with temperatures getting into the mid 80s to low 90s, dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s, and lowering heights in response to northern stream energy helping to retrograde the ridge. Guidance then differs for later week into the weekend. Looks like a decent chance of a frontal passage or two from late week into the weekend, but will have to monitor a system off the Atlantic Coast. If this feature lingers across the mid-Atlantic, seeing a clean frontal passage would be more of a challenge given the enhanced moisture just to our east. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Gusty NW winds continue with the tight pressure gradient. However, they should die off totally tonight as the sfc high will broaden a bit and reside over wrn PA. VFR conditions are expected. There is only a very small chance of a shower/sprinkle over the far west (BFD and JST) later tonight and on Monday. We'll see a big increase in high/mid clouds over the far west overnight, and the high clouds will get a little thicker in the central and eastern zones. If the temps get cool enough tonight, there could be some valley fog across the N, mainly in the NE where the sky will be a little more-clear than over the Alleghenies. The clouds may be thick/low enough to dull the temp drop just enough to keep fog from forming in the Alleghenies/NW. BFD should not see any fog unless it would be early in the night. Outlook... Mon PM...Mainly VFR. Sct SHRA N. Tues-Wed...Sct-Nmrs SH/TSRA areawide. Thu...Isolated to Sct SH areawide. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical summer (solstice) begins at 5:14 A.M. EDT on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. The summer season duration is 93 days, 15 hours, and 50 minutes before the Fall Equinox on September 22, 2022 at 9:04 P.M. Even though it was very cool for mid-June on Sun morning, only BFD got within 5F of their respective record low. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Guseman/DeVoir AVIATION...Dangelo CLIMATE...Gartner/Dangelo