191 
FXUS65 KBOI 180301
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
901 PM MDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.DISCUSSION...Southerly flow aloft will remain over the area
through Saturday as an upper low to our west moves slowly
eastward. Moisture and instability near the core of the low will 
lead to showers and thunderstorms. Showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are expected in eastern Oregon and the West Central
Mountains as the low edges closer. Winds will continue to 
gradually diminish this evening, but it will remain breezy in some
areas overnight. Breezy west to northwest winds will return to 
most of the region on Saturday. Temperatures will be much cooler 
with highs in the 60s and 70s. No updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR, except scattered showers MVFR-IFR over
eastern OR with isolated showers over southwest ID. Areas of 
mountain obscuration. Surface winds: NW 5-15kt. Winds aloft at 
10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20kt.

Weekend Outlook...Isolated showers and storms at times. Areas of 
mountain obscuration at times. Breezy W-NW surface winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A closed low along
the coast will move inland overnight. Shower and thunderstorm
development will be focused across SE Oregon and the w-central 
Idaho mtns overnight. Winds will subside this evening, though a 
compact pressure gradient will keep breezy conditions across open 
terrain into Saturday. Precipitation will increase in coverage 
across portions of SE Oregon, especially Harney county, on 
Saturday as the upper low pushes into central Oregon. General 
instability will feed shower and thunderstorm development over 
higher terrain Saturday afternoon. For Sunday the precipitation 
threat shifts to the w-central Idaho mountains as the low center 
tracks to the ID/MT border. Afternoon instability will again favor
development over higher terrain. Drier conditions develop Sunday 
night. The cold low will keep high temperatures 10-15 degrees 
below normal over the weekend.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...As an upper trough exits the  
region on Monday, showers and afternoon thunderstorms will linger 
over the central Idaho mountains. Conditions will then dry out and
flow will become zonal through the end of the week. Temperatures 
will remain near normal under the weak atmospheric flow. By 
Friday, a trough will start to deepen along the Pacific coast as a
high pressure ridge amplifies across the desert southwest. Though
still somewhat uncertain, ensembles are coming into better 
agreement over warmer temperatures moving into the weekend with a 
chance of high- based afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

www.weather.gov/Boise
www.facebook.com/NWSBoise
www.twitter.com/NWSBoise

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AL