286 FXUS64 KHUN 160501 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1201 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of tonight) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Regional radar data suggests that the large mass of convection that impacted portions of western GA/eastern AL earlier this evening continues to diminish in both coverage and intensity. This trend should persist for the next couple of hours as the associated outflow boundary accelerates west-northwestward away from the remnant convection. Nonetheless, we have increased near term POPs for the southeastern zones in our forecast area. Although the development of additional showers and thunderstorms along this outflow boundary could occur as it spreads further northwestward across the TN Valley, the thermodynamic environment will become increasingly less favorable with time, and we have elected to maintain a dry forecast for northwest AL. Gusty winds up to 40-50 MPH may occur with this feature for another half hour or so, before the wind field disperses. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 We'll be primed for more hot/humid days on Thursday and Friday underneath an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Deep South. With thickness values and 850 mb temperatures progged to increase slightly, an uptick in our temperatures can also be expected, especially Thursday, across the entire area. Highs in the mid to upper 90s will be common. A few sites will attempt to make a run at the 100 degree mark, depending on cloud cover both days. A few isolated showers or storms will be possible on Thursday, but overall think the strong subsidence from the ridge will keep chances suppressed. Slightly better rain chances may exist late Friday afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave traverses the area, potentially bringing a round of widely scattered showers and storms to part of the area. However, the best forcing will be displaced north and east of the area, but with high CAPE values and steep low-level lapse rates gusty winds and hail may be possible with the strongest activity. A drier air mass will filter into the area in wake of this feature, giving us a reprieve from the higher humidity as the center of the ridge briefly shifts back into TX/OK. However, our temperatures won't drop off a whole lot as highs will peak in the low to mid 90s both days. It will more noticeable in the evenings and overnight with more comfortable low temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will then build back into the Tennessee Valley during the early to middle parts of next week. Expect continued hot and dry weather to continue as high temperatures will return to the 95 to 100 degree range each day. In fact, MSL or HSV may hit 100 degrees at least one of these days, which would mark the first time since 2019 this has occurred. One important note will be the drier air mass which will limit heat indices from getting too out of hand. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed next week due to the hot air temperatures, but heat indices may not climb much above 105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 VFR conditions will persist at the terminals this forecast period, with the risk for outflow-driven convection from earlier this evening now over. Some patchy light BR/HZ may develop during the predawn hours, but should not result in significant vsby reductions at either airport. Isolated convection will be possible once again tomorrow aftn, but anticipated coverage is too low to include in the forecast attm. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...70/DD SHORT TERM...AMP LONG TERM...AMP AVIATION...70/DD