045 FXUS64 KHUN 152358 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 658 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (This Afternoon through Tonight) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Another hot and humid afternoon across the Tennessee Valley with 19z temperatures in the mid 90s in most locations. Combined with the higher relative humidity values, heat indices have climbed into the 105 to 110 degree range. A scattered Cu field has developed across the area this afternoon, but they have not shown much vertical depth yet. While a rogue shower or storm can't be ruled out in next couple of hours, think subsidence will generally win out. We'll have to watch for the development of convection very late this afternoon into this evening across west central Georgia and drifting eastward into portions of east central Alabama around 00z along a remnant outflow boundary. Some of the latest CAMs push this activity into portions of DeKalb, Marshall, and Jackson counties between 00-03z. Localized damaging winds and heavy downpours will be the main threat with this activity, but steep lapse rates will make marginally severe hail possible as well with the strongest cells. This activity will quickly wane after 03z as the atmosphere stabilizes and as a result most locations across our area will remain rain-free once again overnight. It will once again be a very warm, muggy night as low temperatures bottom out in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 We'll be primed for more hot/humid days on Thursday and Friday underneath an amplifying ridge of high pressure across the Deep South. With thickness values and 850 mb temperatures progged to increase slightly, an uptick in our temperatures can also be expected, especially Thursday, across the entire area. Highs in the mid to upper 90s will be common. A few sites will attempt to make a run at the 100 degree mark, depending on cloud cover both days. A few isolated showers or storms will be possible on Thursday, but overall think the strong subsidence from the ridge will keep chances suppressed. Slightly better rain chances may exist late Friday afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave traverses the area, potentially bringing a round of widely scattered showers and storms to part of the area. However, the best forcing will be displaced north and east of the area, but with high CAPE values and steep low-level lapse rates gusty winds and hail may be possible with the strongest activity. A drier air mass will filter into the area in wake of this feature, giving us a reprieve from the higher humidity as the center of the ridge briefly shifts back into TX/OK. However, our temperatures won't drop off a whole lot as highs will peak in the low to mid 90s both days. It will more noticeable in the evenings and overnight with more comfortable low temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will then build back into the Tennessee Valley during the early to middle parts of next week. Expect continued hot and dry weather to continue as high temperatures will return to the 95 to 100 degree range each day. In fact, MSL or HSV may hit 100 degrees at least one of these days, which would mark the first time since 2019 this has occurred. One important note will be the drier air mass which will limit heat indices from getting too out of hand. Additional Heat Advisories may be needed next week due to the hot air temperatures, but heat indices may not climb much above 105 degrees. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022 Scattered TSRA that impacted mainly portions of north central AL earlier this aftn have largely dissipated, with satellite imagery and sfc observations confirming SKC conds at MSL and only lingering high-lvl convective debris clouds invof the HSV terminal. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals this TAF cycle, as current short term models indicate little (if any) impact from additional storms currently across portions of northwest GA. Similar to the last couple of nights, a period of lgt BR/HZ will be possible around sunrise, but this should result in only very brief/minor reductions in vsby. Aside from convective influences on the local wind field, sfc flow will remain lgt/vrbl through 17/00Z. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM...AMP LONG TERM...AMP AVIATION...70/DD