662 FXUS62 KTAE 151729 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 129 PM EDT Wed Jun 15 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions are expected over the next few hours at all terminals. Isolated showers and storms may begin developing in the next couple hours near ECP along the sea breeze. Then, a more widespread area of showers and storms will develop late this afternoon from ABY to VLD, moving west to southwest across all terminals in the evening. VFR conditions resume after storms end from east to west. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1053 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today and Tonight]... The main weather stories for today are not much different than what we observed on Tuesday. The heat is expected to continue as a large upper level ridge continues to influence the local pattern. High temperatures are expected to be a degree or two warmer than Tuesday's values and generally in the upper 90s. We can't rule out a few spots hitting 100 this afternoon across Georgia. While temperatures will be warmest in our Georgia counties this afternoon, the best dewpoints will be across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend so expect the higher heat indices to be across Florida where max heat index values will be around 110 F today with values of 105 to 110 F across Georgia and Alabama. The hottest temperatures are expected to begin the late morning hours and into the afternoon before scattered storms begin to lower heat indices in locations that get rain. With the muggy heat, also comes the potential for shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Similar to Tuesday, northeast and easterly flow will be the main player in how the more severe threat materializes today. Looking at the broad pattern across the region, it appears the greatest instability will be well off to our northeast across the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. It's likely that we'll see shower and thunderstorms begin to develop in the early afternoon across these areas and slowly move southwest in the mean flow. With very steep lapse rates and plenty of moisture in the lower levels, and large lapse rates aloft well to our north, these ingredients will fuel instability and we'll see the wind threat begin to increase with these storms as they merge into a potential MCS (similar to the one we saw yesterday). While those storms are ongoing, isolated/scattered storms will begin to develop a little later in the afternoon near the seabreeze across Florida and potentially inland across northern Florida and southern Georgia. These isolated/scattered storms could also begin to slowly merge through the afternoon and transition west and southwest in an organized group. While there is potential for another MCS to develop this afternoon and quickly transition across the area, storm organization will likely be more messy today considering there is no well-organized trigger for storm initiation like we had yesterday (as an MCS moved out of the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic into the southern states). However, despite lesser instability and mid- level lapse rates across our area, there will still be plenty of ingredients across our forecast area to support strong to severe storms once they develop. Like yesterday, the greater threat will be the primary line of storms (if it develops) but even single celled storms have the potential to produce damaging winds. Given the potential listed above, the entire forecast area, besides the extreme southeast Big Bend, is under a slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe weather today and into tonight from the Storm Prediction Center. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Saturday]... The prolonged period of early season dangerous heat is expected to continue through Saturday. Outside of the heat, main concerns will be shower and thunderstorm potential each day. High temperatures on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday are expected to range from the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. The Apparent Temperatures/Heat Index values are forecast to be highest in the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, from around 110 to 115 degrees! This is in part due to less boundary layer mixing. For Southeast AL and Southwest GA, values will range from around 105 to 110 deg. In addition, the record high for Tallahassee on Thursday is 100 degrees, set in 2009. Our forecast high is in the middle of the guidance at 98 degrees, so we could make a run at that record. On Thursday, we remain on the south side of the mid-level ridge, with deep layer easterly flow. The extent of dry air aloft may act to supress convection, so PoPs are below climo at 20-30 pct. With 20 kt 500 hPa winds, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, and substantial CAPE/DCAPE, more robust pulse-type convection would be capable of isolated damaging winds. In addition to the dry air aloft, model soundings also show a mid-level cap, so it's questionable if this can be overcome, given primary forcing from sea-breeze boundaries. Friday is more interesting as the mid-level ridge shifts west, placing the region within northwest flow aloft. The day begins fairly innocuous with east-northeast low-level and drier air aloft that would maintain PoPs in the 20-30 pct range, highest northwest of the FL Big Bend. The models are keying in on yet another potential MCS propagating southeastward from the TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic. If this potential MCS maintains/redevelops along the cold pool, it would certainly be a concern for our area on Friday or Friday Night in terms of gusty winds given the degree of instability below the mid-level cap. Stay tuned. There is uncertainty on Saturday as a "cold front" undergoes frontolysis near the area. This could usher in some much welcomed lower dew points into portions of the area. At this time, the highest chances of precip 20-40 pct are painted along and south of of I-10, where this feature may interact with the sea-breeze boundaries. .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]... Both the GEFS and EPS ensembles indicate much a drier air mass advecting into the Tri-State Region on Sunday in terms of PWATs. As such, the forecast is dry, outside of a 20 pct PoP from the I-75 corridor of GA into the Eastern FL Big Bend. It's possible we moisten up a bit more, so would not be surprised to see this PoP increase or expand westward into the FL Panhandle. It will also be "cooler" with highs in the mid-90s. Looking ahead to Mon-Wed, the mid-level ridge remains nearby with the low-level flow out of the northeast. Have trended toward a climatological distribution of PoPs given this flow regime, highest along and south of I-10 each day. However, have kept PoPs on the lower side given the ridging aloft, mainly in the 20-30 pct range. Highs are expected to creep up again on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees again. For some perspective, the average high in Tallahassee is 91 deg. .MARINE... Winds generally around 10 to 15 knots through Saturday with seas up to 3 feet at times. A brief period of stronger winds is possible with the passage of showers and thunderstorms this evening and tonight. A cold front will approach the waters this weekend leading to winds up to 20 knots at times and seas up to 3 to 4 feet. .FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures and the potential for afternoon storms is the main story through the next few days. With muggy conditions in place fire weather concerns will be on the lower side the next few days. Dispersions will be on the lower side today, but will increase through the rest of the week with hotter temperatures. Main concerns for those outdoors today will the miserable heat indices and the potential for strong/severe storms later in the afternoon. .HYDROLOGY... Much of the Tri-State region saw 0.5-1.0" of rainfall with the storms on Tuesday, with very localized amounts of 2-4." This helps offset otherwise below average precip over the past week. Streamflows remain at or below normal over portions of the FL Big Bend and Southwest GA. Some heavier rainfall is possible once again today with another round of thunderstorms on tap, with average amounts around 0.5-1.0" with locally higher amts leading to nuisance poor drainage flooding. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach this weekend, which could provide for some locally heavier rainfall. Otherwise, rainfall should be at or below climatology through the middle of next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 75 98 75 99 76 / 60 30 20 20 20 Panama City 76 93 78 95 79 / 50 30 10 20 20 Dothan 74 96 75 97 75 / 60 30 10 30 30 Albany 75 99 76 100 75 / 60 20 10 30 30 Valdosta 74 98 74 98 75 / 50 20 10 20 30 Cross City 74 98 74 97 76 / 50 40 20 20 10 Apalachicola 77 90 78 91 79 / 40 20 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton- South Walton-Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty- Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell- Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM...LF AVIATION...Young MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...LF