302 FXUS63 KMPX 110023 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 723 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms likely this afternoon and again early tomorrow. -Heat and humidity is on the way for early next week. This afternoon through Saturday... Scattered showers and storms have developed early this afternoon along a stationary front along the Minnesota River Valley into far southeastern Minnesota. Another area of light showers continues across western Wisconsin. The spotty convection along and south of the front will continue through the afternoon before diminishing towards sunset, with very light rainfall totals expected. Overnight, a mid level trough will lead to another round of showers into Saturday morning. QPF totals with this round are expected to be around a quarter inch with slightly higher amounts possible along and north of the I-94 corridor. Saturday is not expected to be a washout as the system continues off to the east by the afternoon, with a few scattered showers and rumbles of thunder possible by mid afternoon, mainly for eastern and southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. The conditional threat for a few stronger to possibly severe storms late tomorrow for southern Minnesota has diminished, with the biggest limiting factor being lack of strong destabilization in the wake of morning activity. Sunday through Wednesday... Isolated showers are possible again on Sunday, but the focus for the second half of the weekend will turn more towards heat and humidity across the Upper Midwest. An upper level ridge will build across the central CONUS late Saturday into early next week with highs solidly in the 80s to near 90 Sunday and Monday. Tuesday looks to be the hottest day with widespread low to mid 90s coupled with dew points in the mid 60s. PW values look to be running near the climatological max late Monday through Tuesday. While there will be plenty of instability both of these days, warm temperatures aloft will lead to a strong capping inversion, likely preventing much in the way of thunderstorm development. A strong cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday, which may provide enough forcing for showers and storms to develop ahead of the front, but have left slight PoPs in place for now. Highs on Wednesday behind the front will be closer to mid June norms in the low to mid 80s. Thursday and beyond... Dry conditions will prevail from Wednesday evening into the weekend. Temperatures look to build into the upper 80s to low 90s Friday into the weekend as another ridge sets up over the central CONUS. The CPC temperature lookout continues to favor above normal temperatures through the 8-14 day outlook. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Only site in the first 6 hours that has a shot at seeing precip is MKT, as isolated showers continue to develop and move along a wavy boundary over southern MN. Otherwise, we're waiting on the batch of precip up by Fargo to move in later tonight. Followed a blend of the NSSLwrf/HRRR for brining this precip in, as these models fit closest to the mean of the HREF. There may be some embedded thunder with this first batch of rain, but coverage of thunder still looks low enough to keep a thunder mention out of the TAFs. As for a potential second round of precip Saturday afternoon. We've seen a decreasing trend in coverage for round 2, so kept any precip mention to the first round. For CIGS, the LAV is aggressive in bringing MVFR cigs to most terminals, but it is a bit of an outlier there, with HREF and SREF probs for cigs under 3k feet both favoring northern MN into western WI, so limited prevailing MVFR cigs to just RNH/EAU. Wind directions look tricky as well, with a baggy pressure gradient likely to leave our winds up to the whims of showers/storms. KMSP...Rain is not a guarantee tonight/Sat morning, but enough CAMs are bringing precip through MSP between 10z and 15z to keep that mention going. May hear a rumble of thunder or two, but probability of lightning looks low enough to keep that mention out of the TAF. Some MVFR cigs will be possible behind the rain, though HREF probabilities for cigs under 3k feet are low enough at MSP to keep things VFR. Second chance for precip, this time in the form of scattered thunderstorms, comes between 20z and 2z, but confidence in MSP being directly impacted by a storm this far out is to low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5 kts. Mon...Chc -TSRA/MVFR in mrng. Wind SE 10-15G25 kts. Tue...VFR. Chc TSRA overnight. Wind S/SW 10-15g25kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...MPG