764 FXUS63 KDLH 102147 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 447 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 447 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Summary: A bit of a more active and warm pattern sets up for the weekend and for much of next week, but total rainfall amounts look to remain on the light side. A small area of high pressure was located over the Northland this afternoon with a stationary boundary sitting across southern Minnesota into Central Wisconsin. This boundary extends northwestward across North Dakota to an area of low pressure in southwestern Saskatchewan. This weak low will move along the front tonight as a shortwave and an upper jet pass through overhead as well. This will lead to an area of showers with perhaps an embedded rumble of thunder or two for the morning hours Saturday. CAM guidance shows most of this activity clearing out by early afternoon leaving only chances for a few spotty showers for the afternoon. Early activity may fall more as virga with dry air in place at the surface. Rainfall amounts will be around a quarter of an inch in southern areas to around a trace along and north of the Iron Range. Isolated higher amounts to around 0.40 inches will be possible in the Price County area. Another shortwave will pass through the region for Sunday as the jet remains overhead. This will bring another chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. An upper ridge will build to start the new week ushering in much warmer temperatures. Another shortwave keeps light rain chances in place Monday before a negatively tilted trough swings through for Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures ahead of this system will reach into the 80s and 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. While there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms during this period with the trough moving through, strong capping will be in place with 850mb temperatures in excess of 15C during the afternoon and evening hours. The best forcing and shear look to be off to the west over the Dakotas as well. However, if this system shifts further east, severe potential may increase as well. Rain chances will continue for the remainder of the forecast period as the overall pattern remains active. Temperatures look to trend closer to normal during this time period as well after a cold front pushes through in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 VFR conditions are currently in place this afternoon with an area of light showers/virga working across southern areas. A shortwave will then work across the region for tonight into Saturday. This will bring chances for MVFR ceilings in addition to shower activity. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled at at BRD Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to include VCTS at this time. Dry air at the surface may limit how much rain reaches the ground and keep ceilings higher, but should more moisture work in, some IFR ceilings will be possible, primarily at KDLH and KHYR. Winds will remain light and variable through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 447 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022 Winds will remain under 20 knots over the next 48 hours with waves of two feet or less. There will be chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and again Monday afternoon, which may bring gusty winds, heavy downpours and cloud-to-water lightning. Northeasterly winds on Monday may increase to around 20 to 25 knots and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 55 66 47 63 / 50 50 10 20 INL 52 73 50 72 / 20 20 10 30 BRD 59 75 55 75 / 60 60 20 30 HYR 53 70 50 76 / 60 70 20 20 ASX 53 68 45 66 / 40 50 20 20 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH