710 FXUS62 KTAE 082315 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 715 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Friday] Cigs will mainly be VFR tonight before precip arrives Thursday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be affecting all terminals tomorrow, beginning in the morning around 11-13z. This will arrive as a broken line of showers/thunderstorms ahead of a frontal boundary moving south from central AL and GA. Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR, perhaps IFR if the rain is heavy. As the boundary falls apart, the showers may lose their organization but, can redevelop for the afternoon. This is why VCSH is kept at all terminals for the afternoon. VFR cigs are expected to return later for the afternoon but, some showers may remain. The thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds and potentially some small hail. Winds (5-10kts) will generally be westerly during the day and slowly begin to shift to northerly by the end of the TAF period. && .PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]... A few isolated showers or thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, though chances dwindle as we head towards sunset. Quiet conditions are then expected for the overnight hours as we await the arrival of a weak frontal boundary. This will be the main feature for tomorrow as it will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is some concern on the arrival of this system with some guidance having it sag into the GA and AL counties during the morning hours while others keep development until the afternoon. SPC continues to highlight us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Current thinking is the main risk would be during the afternoon where either redevelopment occurs or the initial round of precipitation happens. Main threats will be gusty winds and the potential some hail during the afternoon and evening hours. .SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]... As a trough over the great lakes region continues to slowly progress eastward, we'll continue to experience subtle mid-level disturbances contributing to unsettled weather into the weekend. This will lead to rain chances Thursday night into Friday. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. .LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]... In the long term the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern seaboard this weekend which will allow a summertime cold front to dive south across the area on Saturday. This front will bring higher rain chances on Saturday and persisting into Sunday. Severe potential on Saturday, if any, would be low-end as models currently have a subtle 850mb jet horizontally aligned along the northern half of the CWA. This could help provide some shear needed for a few organized storms, otherwise any slow moving storms could cause flash flooding concerns. An amplified ridge moves in behind the cold front potentially leading to a prolonged period of hot and relatively dry weather. Otherwise, expect daytime highs to generally be in the low to mid 90s (with some upper 90s possible in some of our GA counties next week) with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s. .MARINE... Winds will generally be west to southwesterly through the weekend. Wave heights are expected to be generally 2 to 3 feet tonight, then increasing to 3 to 5 feet by the end of the week into the weekend as a summertime cold front approaches and brings an increase in winds along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .FIRE WEATHER... High dispersion values hold across SE AL and portions of SW GA and the FL Panhandle this afternoon. A few isolated pop up shower or tstorms will remain possible through the evening, with chances diminishing near sunset. Tomorrow a weak frontal boundary pushes through the region which will bring increased chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. Dispersion values are forecast to be high with the passage of the front. RH values may drop into the 50 to 60 percent range with good recovery expected overnight. .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall totals will generally be around 2 inches or less through the next week. Although, localized higher amounts will be possible within thunderstorms this weekend. River flooding is not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 92 72 93 72 / 10 70 30 50 30 Panama City 76 89 74 89 74 / 10 60 40 40 30 Dothan 73 90 70 91 70 / 20 50 10 40 40 Albany 74 91 71 94 72 / 30 40 10 30 30 Valdosta 72 91 71 93 71 / 20 60 20 40 30 Cross City 74 92 73 91 73 / 10 40 50 60 30 Apalachicola 76 87 75 88 75 / 0 40 40 40 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM...Oliver AVIATION...Montgomery MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Oliver