504 FXUS61 KBUF 080602 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will build across the region during the day Wednesday...but our return to fair dry weather will be brief. A storm system will cross over or just south of the region Wednesday night. This will result in another soaking rain that will last into at lest the first half of Thursday. While much improved weather can be expected Friday...there is a fair deal of uncertainty as to whether it can last into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A cold front has exited our region and is now in the process of crossing New England. While the vast majority of the region will now be rain free for the remainder of the pre dawn hours...a leftover shower cannot be ruled out for the North Country. Otherwise...there will be patchy fog around...especially where rainfall of a inch or so fell during the past 12 hours and where winds drop off. After daybreak...a low amplitude shortwave ridge and attendant weak sfc high will pass through the region within a mean longwave trough. This will nearly guarantee fair dry weather for Wednesday...although again...a morning shower cannot be ruled out north of the Tug Hill. Temperatures Wednesday will fall just shy of 30 year normals... peaking in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A deep closed low centered near James Bay will spin in place through the end of the work week while circulating shortwaves across the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. This will support more unsettled weather, although one notable shortwave will swing through the lower Great Lakes during this period bringing the bulk of the impactful weather Wednesday night and Thursday. A robust shortwave within the deep cyclonic flow will rotate across the region Wednesday night. Deterministic guidance packages coming into somewhat better agreement on a low tracking just south then southeast of our forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday, and a bit closer to us than previous consensus. Thus have a swath of Categorical PoPs (steady rain) moving across western NY for the second half of Wednesday night then northeast into the eastern Lake Ontario region for the first half of Thursday. Some discrepancy still lingers with regard to the strength of the low, however overall guidance is trending toward the stronger side of the envelope. Have bumped winds up a bit to account for this trend as well. Will continue with just an isolated/SChc for thunder across the western Southern Tier Wednesday night as the bulk of the instability remains south of our area, which would be expected with a low tracking to our south. The shortwave will rotate northeast into southeastern Quebec Thursday afternoon, however plentiful wraparound moisture within a continued deep moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep the likelihood for showers in across the North Country, with the chance for additional showers lingering across the remainder of the area through the second half of Thursday. Clouds and precip will keep diurnal temp swing to a minimum with lows in the 50s Wednesday night only rising into the mid and upper 60s on Thursday. Thursday night should feature fair dry weather, although subtle shortwaves rotating across southern Ontario could possibly touch off a shower or two across the North Country. Lows will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Surface based ridging will encourage fair weather for Friday, although some afternoon instability showers will be possible across the Southern Tier and toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Upper level trough approaches from the west Friday night. Model consensus continues to differ with shower potential associated with this feature. Will continue with continuity leaning more on the ensembles at this range with SChc PoPs for the North Country and Chc PoPs elsewhere. Despite cool airmass remaining over the area, more in the way of June sunshine will warm things up a bit for Friday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An anomalously deep trough will be overhead Saturday through Monday resulting in cooler than normal temperatures and unsettled weather across the eastern Great Lakes this weekend. Initially, a shortwave trough will round the base of a H5 trough Saturday and surface low pressure will develop and track near the I-95 corridor from Delaware to southern New England. Showers may extend north into the eastern Great Lakes however most ensemble low tracks point to the steady rainfall staying east of the region. The GEFS remains the outlier with steady rain reaching central and north central NY Saturday. Another shortwave trough will likely rotate around the closed low Saturday night into Sunday and showers are possible. Shower chances dwindle Monday as the H5 trough axis moves east of the region. A ridge of high pressure will build into the Great Lakes into Tuesday limiting shower chances early next week. Temperatures will likely be below normal Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60s Saturday and upper 60s to low 70s Sunday. Temperatures will then reach near normal or the low to mid 70s Monday and above normal or in the upper 70s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... While the majority of the region will experience VFR weather for the remainder of the pre dawn hours...MVFR cigs will be found across the North Country (ie. KART and KGTB) with IFR conditions developing across the Southern Tier. After daybreak...weak high pressure will supply the region with fair VFR weather. This will last through most of Wednesday evening. Deteriorating conditions can then be expected after 04z Wednesday night as low pressure passing over or just south of the region will generate some widespread rain with cigs lowering to at least MVFR levels. IFR cigs will be likely late across the Southern Tier. Outlook... Thursday...Areas of MVFR as rain passes across the region. Thursday Night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday night through Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers. && .MARINE... Winds will become westerly overnight as a cold front moves into Eastern NY. This will maintain quite choppy conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through early Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then build into the eastern Great Lakes with subsiding wind and waves through the day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...JM/RSH LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock