994 FXUS65 KABQ 062139 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 339 PM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... The main weather stories this week will include heat and chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday through Thursday for eastern NM with the potential for flash flooding or debris flows in and near the Hermits Peak and Calf Canyon burn scars. High temperatures will be above average for early June through much of the week with the exception of eastern New Mexico Wednesday. Dry and hot weather is forecast for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... A weak backdoor front moved into northeast and east central NM overnight into early this morning and brought sufficient low layer moisture to support the current crop of storms near the CO border from the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos to the OK border. Instability isn't all that impressive according to the latest LAPS analysis, but the 0-6km bulk shear is showing 45-55kts which would normally be supportive of supercells. The threat for severe storms will be limited to northern Union Co late this afternoon and evening. The backdoor front, aided by convective cold pooling, will progress southwest overnight through Tuesday morning through much of the plains and stall-out along the central highlands and east slopes of the Sangre De Cristos, spreading chances for storms further south and west compared to today's crop. Both the 12Z and 18Z NAM solutions are showing considerable shear and instability coupling for Tuesday afternoon and evening, consistent with the SPC Day2 convective outlook which has much of northeast NM in either a marginal or slight risk for severe storms. Storms may initiate over or near the Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon fire Tuesday afternoon, but should move quickly off to the east. Otherwise, Tuesday will be relatively hot and dry to the south and west of the backdoor front, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Thunderstorm organization to our east Tuesday night and resulting convective cold pooling should help the backdoor front to push even further west Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Four Corners or monsoon high begins building up from the south and southeast Wednesday, changing the flow aloft over northern NM to west-northwest by afternoon. Northwest flow, typically, results in strong to severe thunderstorms for the northeast highlands and plains. Meanwhile at the surface, east-southeast flow behind a backdoor front/boundary banks up against the east slope of the Sangre de Cristo mountains, threatening the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar(s) with the potential for heavy rain Wednesday afternoon into the early evening hours. 15 kts of wind at storm steering level will create the potential for any storms that develop over the scar could lead to flash flooding and/or debris flows. An upper level trough sliding east through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains forces the monsoon high center slightly southward Thursday, allowing west winds aloft to bring drier air back in and making any storms west of the central mountain chain rather dry. Models remain in good agreement with another backdoor front moving into northeast NM Friday morning. Isolated storms will favor the southwest mountains, south- central mountains and eastern plains Friday and Saturday afternoons with a few dry storms possible over the west-central mountains. Dry air aloft is forecast to overtake much of the forecast area by Sunday with isolated mainly dry showers and thunderstorms possible over the southwest mountains/Gila NF with a few bonafide thunderstorms over the south-central mountains where low level moisture remains. NBM continues with the idea of perhaps one more westerly wind event early next week before the Four Corners'/monsoon high sets up for the summer late next week. 11/33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions will not be a concern for the week and into the weekend, but burn scar flash flooding will be a concern as well as hot, dry and unstable conditions everywhere west of a backdoor front. Chances for wetting storms will increase across northeast New Mexico Tuesday behind the backdoor front, which will advance westward Tuesday night into Wednesday and bring good chances for wetting storms to the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moisture will trend down as an upper high continues to build over the state Thursday, leading to lower coverage of wetting storms and a higher probability of dry lightning and strong/erratic wind gusts. Expect more of the same Friday and Saturday as hot, mostly dry and unstable conditions persist. The upper high will begin to retreat southeast on Sunday as a west coast trough moves inland, bringing increasing westerlies going into Monday with the potential return of critical fire weather conditions. 11 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except at KTCC behind a backdoor front Tuesday morning when MVFR cigs are possible. MVFR cigs are possible at KLVS Tuesday morning as well, but forecast confidence too low to include in TAF. Otherwise, typical afternoon breezes/gusts forecast with high-based cumulus. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 55 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 47 87 47 91 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 53 87 54 90 / 0 5 0 10 Gallup.......................... 49 90 49 93 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 52 86 51 90 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 51 91 50 92 / 0 5 0 20 Quemado......................... 53 89 53 90 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 61 91 62 91 / 0 0 5 20 Datil........................... 56 89 56 89 / 0 0 5 20 Reserve......................... 47 94 49 96 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 57 96 60 99 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 44 81 44 85 / 0 5 0 10 Los Alamos...................... 61 87 59 86 / 0 5 0 20 Pecos........................... 56 87 57 86 / 0 10 10 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 82 49 84 / 0 20 5 30 Red River....................... 38 76 43 77 / 0 30 10 50 Angel Fire...................... 32 78 40 78 / 0 30 20 50 Taos............................ 45 87 49 89 / 0 10 0 20 Mora............................ 50 83 50 81 / 0 30 20 50 Espanola........................ 58 94 58 94 / 0 5 0 20 Santa Fe........................ 59 88 60 88 / 0 10 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 57 92 56 90 / 0 5 0 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 93 66 95 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 95 66 97 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 97 60 99 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 95 65 97 / 0 0 0 10 Belen........................... 63 98 62 98 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 62 96 61 99 / 0 0 0 10 Bosque Farms.................... 58 97 57 98 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 63 96 62 99 / 0 0 0 10 Los Lunas....................... 60 97 59 98 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 64 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 65 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 20 Socorro......................... 69 100 66 100 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 62 87 60 86 / 0 0 5 30 Tijeras......................... 60 91 60 89 / 0 0 5 30 Edgewood........................ 59 91 56 89 / 0 0 5 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 92 53 89 / 0 0 5 20 Clines Corners.................. 55 87 56 82 / 0 5 10 30 Mountainair..................... 60 90 58 88 / 0 0 5 20 Gran Quivira.................... 63 91 60 89 / 0 0 5 20 Carrizozo....................... 66 94 66 94 / 0 5 0 20 Ruidoso......................... 59 87 58 86 / 0 10 5 30 Capulin......................... 52 79 52 73 / 20 60 50 40 Raton........................... 53 83 53 80 / 10 60 30 40 Springer........................ 54 85 54 81 / 5 40 40 40 Las Vegas....................... 55 84 54 80 / 0 30 30 40 Clayton......................... 57 80 57 76 / 20 40 50 20 Roy............................. 57 84 57 79 / 10 30 50 30 Conchas......................... 61 90 60 87 / 5 20 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 60 91 60 85 / 0 10 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 63 90 61 88 / 5 20 50 20 Clovis.......................... 63 91 62 87 / 0 10 20 30 Portales........................ 64 92 63 89 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 65 93 63 90 / 0 10 20 30 Roswell......................... 69 102 69 99 / 0 0 5 20 Picacho......................... 66 94 63 91 / 0 5 5 30 Elk............................. 63 92 61 92 / 0 10 0 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for the following zones... NMZ214-215. && $$