891 FXUS63 KARX 051729 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Key Messages: - Any Dry Periods Today? - Heavy Rain Tonight? - Generally Below Normal Temperatures This Week * Any Dry Periods Today? 850-700 mb frontogenesis will remain near the Interstate 90 corridor for today. After the weak shortwave moves east of the area this morning, it looks like there will be limited convergence and weak moisture transport along this boundary for the remainder of the day. As a result, lowered the rain chances into the 20 to 30 percent range for much of the area this afternoon. Would not be too surprised to see several hours of dry weather. High temperatures will range from the mid-60s to mid-70s. * Heavy Rain Tonight? For tonight, a stronger trough will move east across southern Minnesota and Iowa during the evening and early overnight. The models continue to show some cyclogenesis occurring along the 850-700 mb front. This will enhance the moisture transport into the region. Precipitable water values climb into the 1.25 to 1.5 inches north of Interstate 94 and from 1.5 to 1.75 inches for the remainder of the area. The HREF mean has surface-based CAPES climbing up into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range early this evening, but they quickly wane by mid to late evening. With relatively weak 1-6 km shear and lackluster lapse rates, not seeing much support for severe weather. Not surprised that SPC is considering pulling the marginal risk further west with their 05.13z update. With the combination of strengthening moisture transport and the cyclogenesis, there may be some heavy rain. The good thing is that our antecedent conditions show that we can take some rain. Over the past month, much of the area saw anywhere from 25% to 90% of normal rain. The driest areas were south of Interstate 90. The only area that saw above-normal rain (110 to 130%) during the past month was parts of eastern Winona, eastern Wabasha, and Buffalo counties. Like the past couple of runs, the HREF shows anywhere from a 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain north of I-94 and from 0.75 to around 1 inch for the remainder of the area. There are some GEFS and ECMWF ECE members which produce rain totals up to 2 inches. With these rainfall totals and generally dry antecedent conditions not anticipating any widespread flooding. However, if there are any training cells, we might see some localized flooding. * Generally Below Normal Temperatures This Week For much of this week, 500 mb heights look to remain below normal. As a result, temperatures should remain generally cooler than normal. A quick look at the ECMWF ECE, shows high temperatures primarily in the lower and mid-70s. However, there may be some mid-60s north of Interstate 94 on Wednesday. Rain chances for the week look to be confined from Tuesday into Wednesday and from Thursday afternoon into weekend. Still not seeing much of a threat for severe thunderstorms at this time. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Fairly persistent flow continues to bring rounds of showers and MVFR conditions to area as frontogenetic zone remains situated east to west. As wave approaches from the west later this afternoon, expect convective activity to increase in coverage with embedded thunder risk going into the evening. Post wave later tonight should bring an end to more widespread shower chances but will still have to deal with fairly poor aviation weather, including IFR ceilings and some drop in visibilities. Hoping as wave exits area late in forecast period that a bit drier regime advects in which should improve overall aviation weather Monday afternoon. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Boyne AVIATION...Shea