944 FXUS63 KDDC 050505 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1205 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 ...Updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 An active weather pattern is expected through at least Tuesday as western Kansas stays along the southern edge of the westerlies and along the north end of the 700mb warm plume where evening and nighttime storm clusters are favored. The Cheyenne Ridge, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa were all beginning to convect this afternoon. With west-northwest flow at mid and upper levels, the Raton Mesa storms will likely propagate southeastward into the panhandles, but could clip extreme southwestern Kansas early this evening. Storms forming on the Palmer Divide will likely affect western Kansas this evening and overnight. By the time these storms move into west central Kansas, they should be outflow dominated so that small hail and damaging winds are the main concerns. West northwesterly mid to high level flow will persist Sunday. Storm initiation is expected along a weak frontal boundary in northwest Kansas. These storms will move southeast during the evening, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns, along with heavy rain. Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 4 2022 Monday evening and night also look very active with moist upslope flow developing underneath mid level westerlies and sufficient instability. Expect storms to once again form on the western high plains and move across Kansas in the evening and overnight, with damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain. Expect highs in the upper 80s Monday. Tuesday night could be active as well as west-northwest mid level flow continues, along with light upslope flow. Temperatures will probably be cooler Tuesday due to a large amount of overnight convection so that any instability will develop along the favored topographic areas of Colorado. This would lead to a later arrival of storms into western Kansas--perhaps toward midnight and after. A shortwave trough will pass across the high plains by Thursday night, helping to push a cold front across the high plains. This will lead to cooler and drier weather for Friday through Sunday. Ahead of the front, another round of storms is possible Thursday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 Thunderstorms will move out of the HYS terminal by 07Z. VFR conditions will then be expected across all TAF sites through today with some mid to high level clouds. Winds will be from the southeast and generally less than 12 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 62 88 61 88 / 30 10 20 0 GCK 60 88 59 88 / 20 10 10 10 EHA 58 91 61 90 / 20 0 10 10 LBL 59 91 61 90 / 30 0 10 10 HYS 61 85 60 83 / 90 30 50 10 P28 65 86 64 88 / 40 20 20 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Finch LONG TERM...Finch AVIATION...Hovorka_42