842 FXUS63 KMQT 031747 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 147 PM EDT Fri Jun 3 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today) Issued at 354 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2022 Another shortwave trough currently over the MN arrowhead is expected to track eastward across Lake Superior this morning. Ahead of this wave, IR and WV satellite imagery shows an overcast cloud deck covering Upper MI as of 0730Z. Cloud cover closer to the shortwave appears more agitated and radar imagery shows some light returns across the MN arrowhead. This could result in a brief shower across the Keweenaw this morning, but measurable precip seems unlikely. 850 mb temps drop to around 0C behind this shortwave trough, which is 2-3 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will therefore struggle to warm into the 60s across most of Upper Michigan today, except near Lake MI where mid 60s are expected. On average, these temperatures are about 5F cooler than normal. The incoming air mass is also quite dry leading to some borderline elevated fire wx concerns with min RH around 30% and afternoon gusts around 20 mph. However, cooler temps indicate the fire wx threat is lower than the previous two days. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 408 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2022 The extended forecast period for Upper Michigan will mainly be driven by a mid-level low pressure system situated over northern Manitoba. Elsewhere, ridging over the Rockies will precede the next perturbation west of the Pacific Northwest before shifting to more of a zonal pattern early next week across the central U.S. For Upper Michigan, this will mean below normal temperatures and periodic chances for rain showers throughout the long term period with a few embedded thunderstorms at times. Tonight, it will be especially chilly as lows trend to near 10 degrees below normal over the interior west. Clear skies under weak ridging with relatively light winds will be conducive to decent radiational cooling, thus a patchy frost threat as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 30s inland. Headlines may be needed with future forecast issuance. Saturday and Sunday, some weak WAA in association with a surface low will nudge daytime highs into the upper 60s/low 70s inland (low 60s near lakeshore). And, with the aforementioned Manitoba low sinking farther into southwest Ontario, this could be just enough to initiate some showers and isolated thunderstorms both days. Further out, the mid-level low will continue its track across Lake Superior early next week followed by another shortwave around mid week. So, expect daily low chance Pops throughout the period. A few rumbles of thunder also cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours from Wednesday through Friday with a slight uptick in instability with daytime heating. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 144 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2022 MVFR cigs have lifted at area terminals over the last two hours so VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 kts will last through this afternoon. Clear skies and lighter west to southwesterly winds setup across Upper Michigan tonight before another round of increasing sky cover by early to mid-Saturday morning. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 503 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2022 Periodic rain showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday as a low pressure system approaches Lake Superior. Meanwhile, winds will start out westerly this morning before shifting to the southwest this afternoon with some gusts up to 20 knots. By Saturday, winds will back to the southeast, remaining relatively light around 10 knots. Winds will take on more of WNW component early next week, still remaining less than 10 knots. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EK LONG TERM...TDUD AVIATION...NLy MARINE...TDUD