077 
FXUS63 KFSD 012254
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
554 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

Radar early this afternoon continues to show mid level echoes
streaming northeast across northwest IA, but low level dry air
with dew point depressions of 20+ degrees continues to evaporate
any precipitation. Have not seen any indications of precipitation
reaching the ground yet but will maintain sprinkles until late
afternoon.

Cool and quiet weather continues tonight as we remain under the 
influence of a closed upper low over the Canadian Prairie. A weak 
shortwave in dry northwest flow aloft may bring increased cirrus 
overnight near/north of the Hwy 14 corridor. Any clouds will have a 
notable influence on nocturnal radiational cooling, but generally 
expect clear skies with temperatures dropping to the colder side of 
guidance into the 40s.

Thursday brings a warm up closer to normal values for this time of 
year with more sunshine and slowly rising heights aloft. Expect 
highs to rise into the 70s, perhaps lower 80s near the Hwy 20 
corridor, but afternoon cumulus development may inhibit mixing some. 
Deeper mixing than Wednesday will also aid diurnal heating, though 
this also brings breezy northwest winds with peak gusts 30-40 mph in 
the afternoon. Gusts combined with dry conditions results in 
enhanced fire danger for any areas with dry vegetation. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

Omega blocking to the north keeps us in a zonal flow pattern at 
least through the weekend, but upper ridging breaking down upstream 
will mean a series of shortwaves bringing rain chances off and on. 
The first disturbance introduces increasing chances for scattered 
showers and isolated storms Friday night as WAA ramps up ahead of a 
developing CO Low. Dry low level air will initially hamper 
precipitation during Friday afternoon, with the faster GEFS/GFS 
solutions bringing in rain Friday afternoon and the more delayed 
Euro/NAM holding off until Friday night.

A few additional weak disturbances move through Saturday and 
Saturday night. Although 0-6km shear looks to be fairly strong with 
a jet max sliding to our north, instability greater than a few 
hundred J/kg appears to reside well to our south, negating any 
severe weather threat at this time. Should see some breaks in 
precipitation Saturday and Sunday, before a stronger wave ejects 
from the Rockies early next week.

For Friday through the weekend, we should continue to see 
temperatures near normal values with highs mostly in the 70s. 
However there may be some minor day to day variance depending on 
cloudiness and precipitation amounts. The latest guidance favors the 
blocking pattern to our north remaining in place well into next 
week, suggesting any chance of widespread or greatly impactful 
systems is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds fairly light
overnight will increase into the 10 to 20 kt range by late morning
tomorrow out of the west or northwest. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Kalin