341 FXUS61 KBGM 011819 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 219 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push through the region this evening with showers and thunderstorms; a few could be severe. The front will stall and remain in our vicinity Thursday, producing more showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure finally builds back in at the end of the week and into this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 115 PM Update... Conditions are becoming more unstable across the region with the latest mesoanalysis showing 600-1200 J/Kg of MLCAPE across all area southwest of a Syracuse to Utica line. In this same area, a corridor of enhanced shear also exists, with effective layer shear of 30-40 kts present over much of our CWA. In collaboration with SPC a severe thunderstorm watch will be in effect for the entire CWA except Oneida county until 9 PM. The main threat will be isolated damaging winds, large hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out...especially across our east- central counties along the stationary frontal boundary. 1115 AM Update.. Made some adjustments to PoPs, QPF and sky cover over the next 24 hours based on latest radar, satellite and trends in the CAMS. A backdoor, stationary front is draped across our CWA late this morning, with temperatures in the 60s and north-northeast winds north of the boundary...and temperatures 75-85 as of 11AM south of the front. The boundary is currently located along a line from near Penn Yan east to Cortland, Norwich and Oneonta. This boundary may fluctuate a bit north or south through the rest of the day, but is not expected to move too much. The main severe thunderstorm threat should be along and south of this front heading into the afternoon and evening hours. There will also be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and even isolated flash flooding if/where multiple rounds of thunderstorms can train over the same locations. WPC is planning a slight risk of excessive rainfall to cover this potential...one caveat is...it has been rather dry recently and 1 hour flash-flood guidance is around or above 2 inches of rain. As for the thunderstorm and especially severe thunderstorm potential. SPC still has a slight risk for just about the whole CWA, with the greatest threat still being possible damaging winds. A low, 2% risk for an isolated tornado was added, due to the low level shear present along the aforementioned boundary. MLCAPE should push 1000-1500 J/Kg this afternoon south/west of the front and bulk shear will be around 30-40 kts. DCAPE values look rather high in the 600-800 J/Kg range, which could aid in some wet microburst develop across the Twin Tiers down into NE PA. Did increase PoPs quite a bit into the evening and overnight hours as the latest HRRR, RAP and 3km NAM are showing a third rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms pushing through in this time frame...especially from the Twin Tiers south across NE PA, where the frontal boundary should be positioned. Lowered PoPs a bit on Thursday with this update as the CAMS are not showing much activity other than isolated to scattered showers and t'storms over NE PA. If these trends continue in the rest of the 12z guidance PoPs may be lowered even further for Thursday. 415 AM Update... ***Severe thunderstorms possible today*** Ridge of high pressure that has produced hot and mostly dry conditions over the last few days, will flatten out today. Most of the region will remain dry until this afternoon, but north of the I90 Corridor will have a shot for a shower or storm this morning as a short wave crosses northern NY. Later this afternoon, another short wave and associated surface cold front approaches the region from the northwest. This front will produce wide spread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening. Just about our entire forecast area remains in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms today. The timing of the front has slowed down a little, with it not coming in until later this afternoon, and this should allow for more destabilization. MLCAPE values max out at 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE. Also, forecast soundings are showing inverted V and DCAPE values are forecast to be over 1000 J/kg, so damaging wind gusts will be the most likely severe threat. Severe thunderstorm potential will diminish after sunset, but may see some lingering showers through about midnight as the front pulls out. The cold front will become nearly stationary and slowly drift northward back into our region again for Thursday. Instability will be limited and not expecting much in the way of thunderstorms, but could see some a few isolated storms for NE PA, but any threat for severe storms should remain well to our south. Clouds and showers are expected through the day on Thursday and high temperatures will run about 10 degrees cooler than today, with most of the area in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 1230 PM Update... Cooler and drier air moves in Friday behind any lingering showers that may remain, resulting in dry conditons through the weekend. Skies will also clear out throughout the day, leading to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s during the day and fall into the upper 40s to low 50s at night. Cooler air continues to move into the region on Saturday. Temperatures across CNY will be a few degrees cooler than on Friday. Those south of the Southern Tier will see little change. Nightly temperatures will be in the 40s. This period will be a little breezy as gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible during the daytime hours. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1230 PM Update... No major changes to the long term forecast. There remains uncertainty on when what happens next week as models continue to show different solutions with the tropical system. So for now, NBM was used for PoPs in this period, which gives a chance for showers starting Monday and into midweek. Temperatures will be near average, though slightly cooler at times next week. Previous Discussion... The cooler and dry weather continues into the weekend. The jet stream starts to lift back north late this weekend as a potential tropical disturbance forms. Deeper moisture begins to advect back northward early next week so the risk of showers and thunderstorms begin to return. If the tropical disturbance can actually form like what the ECMWF has then ridging will dominate most of the week with isolated showers possible with day time heating and moisture in place. If the disturbance stays mostly an open wave or a weak low then troughing would be more possible with better chances of precipitation heading into mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to move west to east across the NY Thruway corridor from SYR to RME, likely through at least 22z this evening. This will keep MVFR fuel alternate restrictions, along with occasional IFR restrictions is any heavier rain or thunderstorms. A cold front will produce widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms with restrictions likely at all other terminals as the storms track from northwest to southeast across the area mainly between 20-24z this evening. Some storms may also contain strong gusty winds and hail. Storms may linger near AVP until at least 02z this evening. Behind the front tonight, showers come to an end, but low level moisture behind the front will bring ceiling restrictions and possibly fog late tonight into Thursday morning. Best chance to see fog would be locations that see heavier rainfall this evening...and also ELM where winds may decouple in the valley. Conditions gradually improve Thursday morning, with all taf sites likely returning to VFR after 14-16z. A few additional showers may develop INVOF AVP heading into the midday and afternoon hours Thursday. Outlook... Thursday afternoon through Thursday night...Rain showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm and associated restrictions are possible at all terminals again. Friday through Sunday...Lingering showers possible Friday morning, otherwise mainly VFR. Monday...A chance of showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms with associated restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MJM NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM SHORT TERM...BTL/MPH LONG TERM...AJG/BTL/MPH AVIATION...MPK/MJM