531 
FXUS63 KIWX 011702
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
102 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

A frontal system will push through the region today. Some scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are expected into early afternoon. 
Another weak system will bring a chance of showers overnight. Much
cooler and less humid air will then overspread the area behind 
the front. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday 
and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

Cold front extends from eastern UP of Michigan to northwest Illinois 
to central Missouri early this morning. Scattered storms in advance 
in zone of upper 60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints, though paltry 0-3 
km lapse rates only yields 500-1000 J/kg upstream. By 12 UTC, weak 
effective shear and surface stabilization with further slight 
dwindle of CAPE and increasing MLCIN to 100-150 J/kg should keep 
storms weak and isolated. Some concern that timing of MCV currently 
over central Illinois into eastern CWA by midday/15-18 UTC 
timeframe, impinging on western flank of increasing MLCAPE/1500-2000 
J/kg. Small temporal/spatial window and overall weak deep layer 
shear with unremarkable westerly wind profiles, to preclude any 
substantive severe risk. A few storms though, could become strong 
with gusty winds as the primary threat midday/early afternoon along 
and southeast of a Marion to Napoleon line. 

Lagged mid level wave tracks rapidly eastward, brings weak frontal 
wave through southern Illinois into Ohio late tonight, with a chance 
of showers, especially southern/central CWA late tonight. Limited 
thunderstorm mention to only slight chance as boundary layer quite 
stable owing to lower/middle 50s surface dewpoints southern CWA. 
Drier and cooler airmass becomes more firmly established into 
Thursday. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

Quiet weather pattern into the weekend with gradual thermal 
moderation to slightly above normal by early next week. Shortwave 
within quasi-zonal flow and attendant weak frontal boundary brings
chance pops late Saturday night. As frontal zone lays out around 
the I70 corridor, persistent chance showers remain into midweek. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

KIWX radar indicating morning convection has moved out of the area
as surface cold front slowly progresses across the region. This
should leave the KSBN area mainly dry and lingering chances for a
stray SH/TSRA in the KFWA vicinity. Expect VFR conditions to
prevail through much of this TAF cycle in a light northerly flow. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...JAL


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