068 FXUS64 KEPZ 300000 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 600 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022 .AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE Wind continues as the biggest aviation concern this period. Smoke from the Black Fire blowing into KTCS is bringing ceilings down close to MVFR conditions. Visibility has dropped to 6SM at times. Dust blowing into Deming has varied this afternoon; everything from 1.5 miles to 8 miles. Dust has only dropped visibility at KELP to 9 miles. These hazards will continue until dark with the wind dies down. W/SW wind currently at 20-30G35-40KT at terminals. Wind will drop gradually after dark, and by 6Z should be to ~1525KT and AOA 12KTS by morning. The exception is KELP which will remain in AWW criteria through about 6-9Z. Wind picks up again tomorrow, however not as strong. Looking at W/SW 15-20G30KT. Smoke from the Black Fire may affect ceilings at KTCS tomorrow morning, however confidence is low at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT Sun May 29 2022... .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather continues this week, although not as hot as in the past few days. Windy conditions continue this afternoon, and again tomorrow. Wind intensity decreases on Tuesday, but it will be breezy. Storm chances return for the extreme eastern portions of the area on Wednesday. Rain and storm chances expand to the west on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will continue to be above average through the weekend. && 29 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tomorrow... Deep west/southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the short term period as a long wave trough deepens across the Intermountain West. A spoke of energy associated with the long wave trough will move across northern NM this afternoon/evening with cyclonic flow increasing ahead of the trough axis. This will foster lee-side cyclogenesis over southeast CO with the associated pressure gradient tightening across NM. Windy to gusty conditions will continue to develop and increase across the forecast area this afternoon and evening. The approaching long wave trough will also tilt and pivot the upper level ridge (that's been over the area over the past few days) further to the east. Thus, shifting the thermal ridge axis east of the forecast area. As the result, high temperatures this afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 90s across most of the lowlands, possibly reaching 100 in the southern Rio Grande Valley. Winds will gradually decrease after sunset and into the overnight hours with low temperatures hovering right around the seasonal normal. Similar pattern will set up for tomorrow. However, most of the region will be at the base of the long wave trough with low level winds gradually veering to the west. Energy aloft will induce another lee-side cyclone across southeastern CO with a tight pressure gradient over NM. That being said, tomorrows lee-side cyclone and surface trough doesn't look as robust as today's. Winds will be breezy, but below headline criteria. Temperatures will cool a few more degrees from today, with high topping out in the low to middle 90s. && .LONG TERM...Monday Night through Saturday Night... Not much has changed in the long term portion of the forecast. Long wave upper trough continues in the western part of the country with one more closed low over the Great Basin before this system departs the area. The surface trough on Tuesday develops over western New Mexico which will turn the winds to the south. This will allow the intrusion of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as the upper ridge guides the moisture towards western Texas, and eventually New Mexico. On Wednesday, the upper ridge elongates towards the southwest allowing more moisture to slip into the area. Precipitable water increases to 0.75-1 inch between the GFS and NAM in the eastern portions of the CWA. The instability persist, but today it is seen in the far extreme eastern corners of Hudspeth and Otero counties. So, a few storms may develop there during the late afternoon hours. Storm coverage increases on Thursday as deterministic and ensemble models continue to show a westward expansion due to a cold front pushing the moisture into the Rio Grande Valley. The best chances remain in areas east of the Rio Grande, there are POPs out west, but my confidence continues to be moderate at best, as not many ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF show much activity over southwestern New Mexico. Thunderstorm chances continue mainly east of the river on Friday. A shortwave trough will strengthen the west to southwest winds, pushing the moisture out as drier and warmer air comes in. By Saturday, the moisture will be east of the region as a drier airmass replaces the slightly humid air. Therefore, temperatures will continue to be hot this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...Red Flag Warnings continue for today and Monday... Fire weather concerns remain in place across the forecast area for the remainder of today and into tomorrow. The dry, hot/warm, breezy/windy pattern will stick around through the middle of the work week as the amplified and progressive pattern regime stays in tack. The long wave trough over the Intermountain West will continue to eject waves of upper level energy across the central Rockies which will induce persistent lee-side cyclone development. The corresponding pressure gradient will tighten across all of NM, leading to breezy-to-windy afternoon conditions. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance shows 80-100% probability of winds exceeding 10 knots for today and tomorrow ( and Tuesday for Mtn zones). Even some strong signals 50-80% prob of 20 knot exceedance in some areas to the northern and west (especially area mtns). Min RH values will continue to be below 15% through at least Wednesday, with improvements east to west towards the end of the week. Overnight RH recoveries will be Good tonight, going back to Poor to Fair for Mon/Tues nights. Fuels across the area and especially in the mountain zones are critically dry and highly receptive. Corresponding ERC values remain near record or above record for the end of May and beginning of June. Given the meteorological conditions overlaid with the antecedent fuel conditions, critical fire weather conditions are expected for today and tomorrow. Elevated to near-critical conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the remainder of this afternoon/evening and also in effect tomorrow afternoon/evening (excluding TX055/TX056). An upper level ridge of high pressure will build back into the region through the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. This will potentially open the door for some moisture intrusions from the south and east. That being said, model and ensemble guidance remain inconsistent with regards to how much moisture and how far west the moisture pushes. But as of now, confidence is higher east of the Rio Grande Valley with slight probabilities of precip introduced into the forecast. Areas to the west of the Rio could see small amounts of moisture, which adds the concern for the potential of dry lightning towards the end of the work week. However, take that with a grain of salt, as guidance and data could change in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 89 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 93 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 90 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 67 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 90 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 80 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 91 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 53 89 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 93 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 61 93 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 96 61 100 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 86 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 95 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 92 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 58 90 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 91 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 77 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 76 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 44 83 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 85 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 88 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 81 46 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 85 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 90 40 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 82 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 52 91 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 90 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 90 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ402>417. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113. TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418>424. && $$