736 FXUS65 KABQ 272104 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 304 PM MDT Fri May 27 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Yet another significant long stretch of dry, warm, and windy weather bringing the threat of critical fire weather is on tap this Memorial Day Weekend. Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings begin in earnest Saturday, with another round of these highlights looking likely for Sunday and Memorial Day. Afternoon peak gusts of 40-55mph can be expected with bouts of blowing dust each day. The weather pattern chances significantly for the better beginning as early as Tuesday, but more-so Wednesday with an influx of low-level moisture bringing an increase in afternoon wetting thunderstorm chances to eastern NM. These chances spread westward into the Rio Grande Valley Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... Near record warmth will return on Saturday as southwest winds strengthen ahead of an upper level trough moving on shore over the northwest US. Southwest wind gusts from 45 to 50 mph are expected Saturday, except for gusts near 55 mph over the northeast thanks to a ~988 mb surface low over southeast CO. Widespread critical fire weather conditions are also expected with well-developed smoke plumes traveling well to the northeast of wildfires. Blowing dust will also drop the visibility in many lower elevation locations, potentially under 1 mile in the most dust-prone locations. The flow aloft will continue to strengthen Saturday night as the upper trough begins forming a closed low over the Great Basin. This will keep the flow strong over the mountains, especially the northern and west central mountains, and will slow the process of decoupling for many lower elevation locations. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Sunday will be the second day in a 3-day holiday weekend stretch of windy critical fire weather starting the Long Term Period. Strong southwest flow, highlighted by a 35-45kt H7 jetmax situated over New Mexico will once again mix down to the surface and be further enhanced by a 987mb MSLP lee-side surface low over southeastern CO. More widespread windy weather with peak gusts reaching 45-55mph will result, with the strongest winds focusing along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Raton during the afternoon period. NWP models continue to highlight mountain wave activity Sunday night into Monday morning over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Cross-sections depict this more clearly than they did 24 hours ago, so forecast confidence is a bit higher with this forecast package. Have gone ahead and upped winds higher as a result over the higher elevations and just lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Elsewhere, atmospheric decoupling looks to bring wind speeds down overnight. An interesting evolution in model solutions for Monday in that what was a vort-lobe swinging around a parent upper low bringing stronger winds to New Mexico Monday afternoon is now closing off to it’s own trailing low over southern UT. This has resulted in lesser wind potential for the area Monday afternoon, although it will remain windy, just not as strong as originally thought. Forecast wind speeds take a dip of 5-10mph from Sunday’s peak speeds as a result. This upper low also takes a longer time to translate eastward, staying over UT Tuesday, resulting in an earlier push of a backdoor cold front from CO into northeastern NM Tuesday afternoon. Have included a 10% mention of PoPs to northeastern NM for Tuesday as a result. Otherwise, this low will exit the region Wednesday, with little change in thinking to the extended period. A much awaited significant push of low level moisture from the plains arrives into eastern NM Wednesday sparking scattered afternoon thunderstorm activity over the eastern plains. Thunderstorm outflow from these storms push the moisture further west into the Rio Grande Valley, spreading scattered coverage of afternoon storms to the continental divide Thursday afternoon. This may very well end the consecutive day streak of no measurable precipitation at the ABQ Sunport, fingers crossed! 44/24 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...DAILY ROUNDS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AREAWIDE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TUESDAY... CAMs continue to indicate isolated and gusty virga showers until sunset this evening from the Middle Rio Grande Valley east and northeastward across the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains, as well the northeast plains and western parts of the east central plains. A disturbance crossing the central Rockies and a very unstable atmosphere are helping to get this convection going, and making surface winds gusty areawide. A fire growing pattern will develop Saturday through Tuesday as the broad Great Basin low pressure system ejects northeastward across the northern and central Rockies, and another upper level low pressure system follows in it's footsteps. The polar jet stream will draw gradually closer to NM Saturday, then cross mainly the northern half of the forecast area Sunday through Monday night. In addition, stout surface troughs will regenerate daily in the lee of the southern Rockies. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast areawide Saturday through Monday, then potentially along and east of the central mountain chain Tuesday where weaker but still strong winds may linger. At this time, the strongest winds look to occur Saturday, when gusts will probably reach 55 mph along and just east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With the jet stream moving over the northern mountains this weekend, winds may continue to gust over the high terrain in the 45-50 mph range during the overnight hours, especially Sunday night and Monday night. The orientation of the jet is favorable for a potential mountain wave crash at lower elevations of the Northeast and Far Northeast Highlands with the greatest risk Sunday night; however, forecast soundings from the GFS20 indicate lower elevations should decouple from the stronger flow aloft there late Sunday night as a low level temperature inversion sets up. Poor humidity recoveries are expected most places tonight and areawide Saturday night. After near record high temperatures Saturday, readings will cool near and a few degrees below normal over western areas Sunday, then as much as 11 degrees below normal over western areas on Monday. Nonetheless, Haines Indices are forecast to vary from 5-6 areawide again Monday, only a little moderated from mostly 6's on Saturday and Sunday. Poor humidities are forecast to linger mainly over eastern areas Sunday night and Monday night. A gusty and moist backdoor cold front is forecast to dive southwestward through eastern then central areas Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance for thunderstorms and potentially wetting rain mainly along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday, then mainly along and east of the continental divide daily through the end of the work week. Cooler temperatures are also expected with the increased moisture. 44 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Southwest winds will become gusty areawide today with ample atmospheric mixing in near record warmth. Isolated virga showers are expected late this afternoon until early evening mainly from around Pietown northeastward across central and northeast parts of the forecast area. Expect dry microbursts with erratic wind gusts potentially reaching up to 45 knots. A few lightning strikes will also be possible mainly over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near the CO border. With strengthening flow aloft, winds will probably remain fairly strong over mountain peaks tonight. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 89 56 80 / 0 0 0 10 Dulce........................... 44 82 48 76 / 0 0 0 20 Cuba............................ 47 84 47 75 / 5 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 46 85 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 46 79 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 45 85 47 81 / 5 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 47 85 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 87 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 50 84 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 44 88 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 52 90 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 41 76 42 72 / 0 0 0 30 Los Alamos...................... 56 83 55 78 / 5 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 53 85 51 79 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 80 45 72 / 0 0 0 10 Red River....................... 41 76 41 66 / 5 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 36 75 38 68 / 5 0 0 5 Taos............................ 46 85 46 77 / 5 0 0 5 Mora............................ 49 82 49 76 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 54 93 55 84 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 51 88 50 79 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 90 50 82 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 61 90 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 93 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 55 96 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 94 59 85 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 57 96 56 89 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 55 95 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 50 94 49 88 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 57 96 57 87 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 95 50 88 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 59 92 60 83 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 93 59 86 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 59 96 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 86 55 79 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 56 90 55 82 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 54 87 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 46 91 46 85 / 10 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 53 85 50 79 / 10 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 56 88 53 83 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 57 88 53 83 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 62 91 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 58 86 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 53 85 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 51 89 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 52 91 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 54 87 53 80 / 10 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 58 95 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 91 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 62 99 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 60 96 60 88 / 10 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 63 102 64 95 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 63 98 61 93 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 100 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 64 102 63 93 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 63 106 62 98 / 5 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 63 96 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 61 92 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones... NMZ101>109. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following zones... NMZ101>109. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones... NMZ210-212>216-221>233-239. && $$