478 
FXUS63 KGID 261742
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Overall scenario depicts a slowly departing low giving way to upper 
level ridging from the west. Satellite reveals a sharp edge to 
clouds in our west. Radar showing last of the precip this morning in 
the form of a deformation band that set up over the central/eastern 
CWA. Hi-res models indicate that this will move off to the east this 
morning as both the surface low and upper low move east. General 
warming trend is still forecast with today being the so called 
transition day to the heat. HRRR indicates the possibility of a 
little fog in our east/northeast as wind decreases, but SREF keeps 
fog potential north/east of the CWA. May wind up making a mention of 
patchy fog.

Ensembles are generally trending with holding off on rain until as 
late as Tuesday evening/night/Wednesday time frame, with severe 
parameters/CWASP indicating potential for severe storms Tuesday 
evening, especially in our east/southeast CWA associated with the 
cold front moving east southeast. Flooding might be an issue with 
training storms if the cold front stalls. 

However, one small possibility for some light qpf might be Saturday 
night in our north/northwest with some height falls aloft as 
southwest flow develops ahead of a developing broad trough in the 
west, while convergence at about 850 mb may occur near the nose of a 
low-level jet. Deterministic models also try to bring in lines of 
precip in the Sunday to Monday time frame, especially the ECMWF for 
Monday night, but ensembles are stubbornly keeping most if not all 
QPF northwest of most locations in our CWA and my thinking is better 
chances toward a dry forecast in this time frame.

Also, ensembles point toward really holding onto our hats on Monday 
in advance of a cold front over central Nebraska. NBM predicts a 
little bit better than one out of three chance of hitting 50 KTS (58 
mph) for a maximum gust on Monday afternoon for Grand 
Island/Hastings.

After the most recent rain, conditions seem to be greening up across 
much of the area, however we will keep an eye on some breezy and dry 
conditions over the weekend into early next week as we continue to 
green up. The hope is that soon the greenup will be sufficient to 
suppress fire weather concerns. 



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu May 26 2022

Pretty quiet forecast expected through the TAF period at both
terminals. VFR conditions prevail with remnant clouds clearing out
at KGRI over the next 1-2 hours. Breezy south winds of 15-20kts
are expected to continue through this afternoon and early evening,
before becoming light and variable around 01Z.  

Skies remain clear overnight with light and variable winds. Winds
become southerly at 5-10kts by mid-morning. Just outside of the
TAF period, winds are expected to increase and shift to the
southeast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wekesser