010 
FXUS63 KABR 231559 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1059 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

The overall forecast for the remainder of today remains on track.
Anticipate showers and a few storms to develop through the
afternoon hours. No severe weather is expected, but a couple of
the stronger storms could produce localized gusty winds. Did make
some minor adjustments to PoPs, Winds and Sky grids to account 
for current trends observed this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Low clouds will be moving into the region this morning as a low 
pressure system moves across the area. Temperatures this morning are 
much warmer than the past couple nights, ranging from around 40 to 
45. Some showers are already starting to form a band from Mobridge 
to Watertown. The main event this afternoon will bring some light 
precip to most areas, totaling a tenth of an inch or less. Parts of 
central SD could see closer to a quarter of an inch. Went with a 
blend of NBM and ECAM for pops today as the NBM seemed to keep pops 
too low. Winds today will be out of the south to southeast as the 
low passes to our north. Areas of north central and central SD could 
see gusts around 30 kts this afternoon as the low moves out of the 
region. Temperatures tonight are expected to be around 40. Tuesday 
looks to be a little cooler than today due to a thick cloud layer, 
but no precip is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Tuesday night with 
upper level trough and surface low pressure system over the central 
plains, with perhaps light pcpn reaching the southeast CWA before 
12Z Wednesday. The storm system tracks north-northeast on Wednesday, 
with pcpn possibly spreading as far west of the James River valley. 
As of now, far eastern SD and western MN will have the best 
potential of seeing pcpn from this storm system. Upper level ridging 
will build into the area for the rest of the work week, with warmer 
and drier conditions expected. High temperatures Thursday through 
Friday should reach the 70s and 80s. An upper level trough over the 
Pac NW will cause weak southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern 
Plains for the Holiday weekend. A couple of storm system will track 
across the region, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions to start things off this morning at all four
terminals. KABR/KATY and KMBG probably stay VFR through the entire
TAF valid period. Borderline MVFR ceilings are still possible at
KPIR late in the day, less probable though, compared to 12 to 24 
hours ago. Already seeing some preliminary showers develop and
move, for the most part, eastward across the northern plains.
Expect additional isolated to scattered showers later this
afternoon into this evening. Southeasterly winds may eventually 
pick up a gust character up to 20 to 25 knots at times during the
day today.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn