367 FXUS61 KRNK 211039 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 639 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Heat continues today but storms are expected to develop this afternoon and linger through this evening in scattered coverage. A front approaches Sunday with a better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures return Monday behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM EDT Saturday... Heat Continues But Storm Chances Increase... Forecast area will be in the heat again today, but a shortwave pushing north from Georgia this morning will move overhead later this afternoon, allowing for support for storms to move in/develop ahead and with this wave. Leaning toward a blend of the CAM models shows better coverage potential across the mountains of NC east toward southside VA, with less coverage north of I-64. Since the synoptic models are in decent agreement on the shortwave, seems a good bet (greater than 50%) that storms are going to occur along/south of the VA/NC border this afternoon. Less confidence north but a scattered coverage appears likely, with a secondary higher coverage this evening over southeast WV/Alleghanys as the shortwave exits north. With steepening lapse rates with this wave, a few storms could bring gusty to potentially damaging winds and hail. A marginal risk for severe storms exists areawide, with mainly a pulse to multicell environment in place. SBCAPES will exceed 1500 J/kg in spots, though shear is limited. With moisture also increasing, heavy downpours are likely, though overall flood threat. As for temperatures, still looking hot in the piedmont, but question is how much cloud cover cuts off sunshine. This morning area of high clouds moving in, but mostly thin. Then convection forming and any blowoff, may bring more clouds than sun this afternoon. Leaning toward MET guidance in the mountains and blend of MAV/MET in the east with lower to mid 90s expected, while 80s in the mountains, even 70s in the NC higher terrain where storms are likely sooner. See climate section below for forecast vs records. Convection wanes after midnight with skies clearing in the west, but low clouds may form in the piedmont and where it rains. Fog also could become an issue late in the mountains. Cold front heads into the upper Ohio Valley to middle TN before dawn Sunday, so may see showers approaching southeast WV but overall this should hold off til after 12z Sunday. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. Forecast confidence is high on wind/sky cover, and moderate/average on storm coverage and high temps today/this evening. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Saturday... Stormy Sunday followed by a wet, cool start to the week... A cold front approaching from the west will provide forcing in a moist warm environment to form thunderstorms and showers Sunday afternoon. As the front pushes against high pressure off the southeast Atlantic coast, it will slow down, potentially allowing the front to linger in our area into Monday. Most guidance has the front eventually washing out in the Carolinas on Monday. Keeping chance PoPs through Tuesday as the stalled front will serve as a trigger for precipitation as long as it stays nearby. Later on Monday high pressure will slide south off southern Canada and begin to wedge in some cooler air Monday and Tuesday. Sunday will be the last in a trio of hot days, maintaining widespread 80s and low 90s, before a frontal passage and wedging drops temperatures Monday and Tuesday into the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Saturday... Wet week with another front late week... With timing uncertain on the next front, but high confidence that a front and deep upper trough will impact us some time late next week, have kept precipitation chances for most of this period. Between a stalled front in the Carolinas and pre-frontal showers, not expecting too many dry days this week. Currently expecting the late week system to bring a front and storms through our area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. This is subject to change, though, as model guidance is not lining up in agreement quite yet. Expect a slight warmup Wednesday and Thursday, back towards normal temperatures for this time of year in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Saturday... High pressure will be off the southeast coast today. High clouds moving across this morning. Expect increasing low level moisture that will lead to more cumulus buildup by late morning. Models are highlighting best threat for storms across the NC mountains toward southside VA this afternoon. As such will put in VCTS over DAN for a couple hours late in the afternoon per high-res models. Otherwise, anticipate widely scattered storms, and amendments may be necessary. Should be VFR though, outside of any storms, with southwest to south winds 5-10kts. Where it rains and with clearing, fog appears possible especially LWB/BCB due to increase humidity. Have IFR 3sm after 09z. High confidence on cigs/vsbys and winds, and fair confidence on storm coverage. Extended Aviation Discussion... Showers and storms are expected again Sunday, with better coverage and potential for something more organized as a cold front moves into the region from the west. Prevailing conditions will be VFR with well-above normal temperatures. Areas of Sub-VFR conditions are expected Sunday through Monday associated with the thunderstorms. Models suggest the front may stall south of the region Monday. If this occurs, then clouds and showers may linger into mid-week with areas of sub-VFR. && .CLIMATE... As of 245 AM EDT Saturday... Saturday May 21, 2022 Location Forecast Record Record Year Bluefield, WV 84 90 1941 Danville, VA 95 98 1941 Lynchburg, VA 94 96 1941 Roanoke, VA 93 97 1941 Blacksburg, VA 86 92 1941 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...BMG LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...AMS/WP CLIMATE...WP