186 FXUS66 KMTR 170022 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 522 PM PDT Mon May 16 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A warming and drying trend will persist through midweek and continue into the upcoming weekend. Breezy onshore winds are also likely each afternoon and evening with the potential for offshore winds to develop Thursday into Friday across the interior. && .DISCUSSION...as of 01:51 PM PDT Monday...Widespread stratus across the region earlier in the day has mostly dissipated with the exception of around the Monterey Peninsula, along the San Francisco Peninsula including much of the San Mateo County coastline, and around Point Reyes. As such, mostly sunny conditions have developed over the interior with just a few passing high clouds. However, temperatures are running a few to as much as 10 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday as onshore flow has increased ahead of a mid/upper level trough pushing inland to the north. Wind gusts remain strongest near the coast, in the region's higher terrain, across the coastal gaps, and inland passes with gusts generally between 25 to 40 mph. Look for drying conditions aloft to limit the depth of the marine layer tonight into Tuesday morning. As a result, look for less inland intrusion of stratus tonight into Tuesday morning with temperatures dropping into the 40s to lower 50s (near the coast/bays). A warming trend is then likely from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure over the Pacific builds across the region. This will bring daytime temperatures back into the mid/upper 70s to mid 80s on Tuesday with upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday. Meanwhile, breezy to at times gusty onshore flow near the coast will likely hold temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s through midweek. Very slight cooling is expected on Thursday as another mid/upper level trough drops into the Pacific Northwest. However, the colder air mass looks to remain well enough to our north and inland to keep temperatures above seasonal averages through late week. The main impact will be an increase in northerly winds on Thursday and Friday along with drying conditions. As the mid/upper level trough exits the Pacific Northwest and drops southeastward into the Great Basin, winds may turn offshore across the interior's higher terrain. Depending on the strength and placement of this "inside slider", we'll have to monitor for increased fire weather concerns late in the week. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will then remain the dominate weather feature heading into the upcoming weekend. As such, look for inland areas to remain in the 80s to lower 90s while upper 60s to 70s will be common closer to the coast/bays. Dry conditions and above average temperatures look to persist into the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION...as of 5:22 PM PDT Monday...For the 00Z TAFs. Predominantly VFR conditions with MVFR along the coast due to lingering stratus. Satellite imagery shows marine stratus dissipating and moving to the south as surface high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This will pave the way for drier conditions tonight with less stratus around most of the SF Bay area. Hi-res models do show stratus lingering along the San Mateo Coast and around Monterey Bay through the late morning, so MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible in these areas. Otherwise, breezy and gusty onshore winds will settle down tonight and increase late Tuesday morning and afternoon. Vicinity of KSFO...Mainly VFR conditions with SCT low clouds reported at the terminal and observed on area webcams. Satellite imagery shows much clearing of stratus at the coast so stratus feed should shutoff this evening. Few low clouds around tonight but VFR should prevail, based on latest model guidance. Winds are quite gusty, up to 35 kt in the last hour, and will likely remain gusty through the evening. Breezy onshore winds continue tonight into the morning, with more strong gusty winds Tuesday afternoon. KSFO Bridge Approach...Scattered low clouds over the approach should dissipate this evening. Monterey Bay...BKN cloud deck (MVFR) at KMRY with FEW/SCT around KSNS, and clear over northern parts of the Bay. Expecting low stratus to expand over area terminals towards sunset, or possibly earlier. MVFR/IFR CIGs tonight through Tuesday morning. Breezy to gusty onshore winds diminish tonight and return Tuesday late morning/afternoon. && .MARINE...as of 03:09 PM PDT Monday...Increasing northwest winds today with gale force gusts developing across much of the coastal waters. Winds may diminish slightly midweek, but coastal jets will still be strong in the afternoons and evenings, generating steep and hazardous wind driven seas. Even stronger northerly winds expected late Thursday and Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Mry Bay SCA...SF Bay until 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: Lorber Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea