028 FXUS62 KCHS 152354 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 754 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will push offshore late Monday night. High pressure will gradually build into the region through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Well defined sea breeze boundary continues to press northeastward through the far western portions of the CWA, popping off short-lived convection along the way. Convection has definitely diminished in intensity over the last few hours, owing to a cooling boundary layer/increasing CINH. That trend will continue for the next few hours with precip largely ended by late evening. Now just hoping we can clear out enough of the thicker high convective debris cloud in order to see the lunar eclipse. Temperatures will dip into the 60s for all areas, a little warmer near the coast. And as mentioned by the day forecaster, a touch of fog is certainly possible, particularly in areas that did manage to get rain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Monday: Weak troughing will remain situated across the region as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Overnight, the cold front should shift offshore. With sufficient forcing in place and PWAT's between 1-1.5", isolated to scattered showers will be possible. Any precipitation that does form will likely be in the afternoon/evening time frame when decent instability will be in place. Thunder probabilities are not overly impressive but have slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. SPC has outlined the area in a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms. So while the overall severe threat is low, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s along the coast with upper 80s to low 90s inland. Lows will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Tuesday: The aforementioned cold front will likely hang offshore or just in the vicinity of the area for the majority of the day. Then late/overnight, the front will lift back into the area. For now, have maintained a dry forecast as PWATs and forcing will be limited. Although, a few of the models are hinting at isolated convection so cannot completely rule out any showers, especially in the afternoon/evening. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s along the coast with upper 80s to low 90s inland. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s to low 70s closer to the coast. Wednesday: The stalled front lingering across the area will finally lift northeast and depart the region. Behind the front, plentiful dry air due to strong high pressure will support rain-free day. A mostly sunny but hot day is expected. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to upper 80s closer to the coast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure and dry air across the region will prevail through late week. Then on Saturday and Sunday, shortwave energy and forcing could support showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. For temperatures, it'll be a warm week with highs in the mid to upper 90s inland (close to 100 degrees in some spots) and upper 80s to low 90s along the coast. Lows will be in the 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Last bit of daytime convection will fizzle out over the the next few hours with just some thicker higher cloud cover anticipated. VFR conditions anticipated through tonight...for the most part. Some ground fog is possible at all three terminals late tonight. KSAV might see a bit more with flight restrictions owing to earlier rainfall. VFR weather again on Tuesday. SCT-BKN Cu will develop late morning and through the afternoon hours and there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon. I have not explicitly included precip in the terminal forecasts at this juncture, but that may be added in later forecasts. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .MARINE... This evening and tonight: The western side of the sub-tropical Atlantic ridge will cover the coastal waters, while a lee side trough remains inland. Sea breeze circulations will allow for SE and S winds as high as 10-15 kt this evening, except for some wind gusts pushing 20 kt in the Charleston Harbor. Once that circulation fades during the early and mid evening, winds will turn a bit more S to SW through the night, with subtle low level jetting to keep winds at a solid 10-15 kt throughout. Seas are mostly due to swell waves and will average 2-4 feet across the entire ocean waters. While we can't entirely rule out a couple of showers or thunderstorms drifting into the coastal waters, especially along the Georgia coast, odds favor the bulk of the activity staying over land before dissipating well before midnight. Monday through Friday: A southwest flow will prevail on Monday as a cold front approaches the region. Overnight, the pressure gradient will tighten and winds will be around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts. At this time, conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. On Tuesday, west winds will become southerly and persist through late week. Winds will be less than 15 knots with seas 2 to 4 feet. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will be in place through this evening due to small swells and astronomical influences. Please be informed that there were two rescues from rip currents at Tybee yesterday. Never go in the water if you can't swim or know how to escape a rip current. A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for all beaches Monday, due to continued onshore flow and swell energy. An enhanced risk could persist into mid-week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides have been running around 1 foot MLLW above predicted values at both Charleston and Fort Pulaski, and this trend will continue into the evening high tide cycle. Utilizing an on- station tool we are arriving at 7.4 ft MLLW at Charleston with the 830 PM high tide, and around 9.4 ft MLLW at Fort Pulaski. Due to these expectations we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for coastal sections of Charleston and Colleton County, and included mention of a possible advisory for the rest of the coast from beaufort to McIntosh in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Additional minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding will be possible during the late evening high tides through at least the middle of the week as astronomical influences peak, mainly for Coastal Colleton and Charleston Counties. Although, less favorable southerly winds should help mitigate the effects of coastal flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049- 050. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...TBA AVIATION...TBA