619 FXUS63 KJKL 151920 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 320 PM EDT Sun May 15 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 230 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022 It has been a pleasant start to the day in Eastern KY with subsidence in between weather systems provided for plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures today. Some scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon into early evening across the mountains as the trough axis is running along the spine of the Appalachians. Any showers and storms should diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Attention then turns to an approaching upper level trough and surface cold front from the west, both of which cross the area overnight into Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front overnight into Monday morning. The main severe threat will be well to our west this afternoon into this evening where better instability and forcing exists, although a few stronger storms may still develop locally overnight, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. While storm motions will be fairly progressive, some localized flash flooding is not out of the question, especially over areas that experienced heavy rainfall yesterday. Overnight low temps will be mild, generally in the lower 60s. The trough axis and cold front move through the area Monday morning, although some lingering low level moisture will be slow to scour out across the mountains, so precip chances will remain through the morning and into the early afternoon. The low level moisture eventually does scour out as high pressure builds in from the west, and expect clearing skies and plenty of sunshine for the latter half of the afternoon through sunset. Cooler temps expected, with afternoon highs only reaching the lower to middle 70s. Mainly clear skies overnight into Tuesday morning as high pressure remains in control. The clear skies, expected calm winds, and saturated soils from the rainfall early Monday, should all combine to create ideal fog conditions early Tuesday morning, especially in the river valleys. Low temps Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 320 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022 The upper level pattern will start out with a trough across eastern Canada and the Northeast with northwest flow over across the Ohio Valley and the the Commonwealth. Weak ridging will be centered over the southern Plains while several shortwaves sit across the the western CONUS. Through the day Tuesday and into the overnight, the flow across the CONUS flattens out and several shortwaves can be seen cross through the Plains and Mississippi Valley towards Kentucky. These shortwaves will bring the chance for showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday. The pattern will amplify Thursday night into Friday with a more distinguished trough developing west of the Plains and Bermuda high supporting a ridge across the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure centered over the area will keep conditions pleasant and dry Tuesday. A weakening cold front will stall across the Commonwealth on Wednesday which will bring the chance for showers and storms as shortwaves pass over the area. This boundary will then lift back to the north as a warm front late Wednesday into Thursday as the pattern amplifies and southerly flow at the surface increases. Model guidance has trended toward a dryer solution Friday afternoon and evening. A cold front will approach from the west and will bring more widespread showers and storms Saturday and Saturday night. The pattern during the long term will be rather unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday, Thursday and again on Saturday. Temperatures will start off seasonal in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before jumping up into the upper 80s to low 90s for Thursday and Friday. Tuesday night lows will start in the low to mid 50s before becoming more mild in the 60s for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2022 VFR to start the 18Z TAF period. SCT Cu this afternoon with some widely scattered showers and storms across the mountains but are not anticipated to impact the terminals. Winds are light and variable. A cold front will cross the area overnight into Monday morning, with showers and storms along and ahead of the front. Ceilings behind the front are expected to fall to MVFR with some brief IFR possible. Winds behind the front on Monday will become NW 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...BATZ AVIATION...CMF