420 FXUS64 KBRO 141938 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 238 PM CDT Sat May 14 2022 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Let's be honest. There are only so many ways someone can say: Hot, humid, and no chance for rain, especially in the month of May. Instead, let's chat a little about how this month has gone so far... We are running a little over 4 degrees above normal in Brownsville and Harlingen and about 3 degrees above normal in McAllen. What about rain? Well, all three climate sites are sitting on a big ole goose egg (0.00") so far with no end in sight through the short term (and long term). This is mighty concerning as May is, on average, our 4th wettest month of the year in Brownsville and McAllen and 3rd wettest month in Harlingen. Now, you may be asking yourself... Have we gone through the month of May without any rain before? Well, yes! McAllen went the whole month of May in 1998 without recording any rain. Brownsville had a Trace that year and the airport in Harlingen picked up a whopping 0.03" in May of 1998. Now, can that change? Absolutely! And usually in a hurry too! So, why am I chatting about it? Well, because I found it interesting and thought some of you might too! As far as the forecast is concerned, a sprawling H5 ridge centered over the southern tip of the Baja of California will continue to influence our weather through the short term with a plethora of dry air aloft. At the surface, high pressure is parked over the Gulf of Mexico, so the breezy south to southeast winds will continue through the short term. That means a continuation of warm overnights with lows in the upper 60s in the Northern Ranchlands and lower to middle 70s in the Rio Grande Valley tonight and again Sunday night. Daytime highs Sunday will be a tick warmer than they were today due to H85 temps increasing by 0.5 to 1.0 Celsius across the region. That puts daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s for most of the County Warning Area (CWA) and lower 100s in the Rio Grande Plains. Some mixing Sunday afternoon should allow dew points to fall into the middle to upper 50s west of I-69C/US-281, which would put heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. So, while still hot, they're not forecast to be near Heat Advisory (111 degrees or hotter for a few hours) Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Hot and rain-free conditions continue through the long term... Mid level ridging will persist over the region, even while a series of shortwaves pass through the Southern Plains and flatten the ridge overhead by midweek. Subsidence, along with ample dry air aloft, will keep Deep South Texas hot and dry through the period. The series of shortwaves will spawn surface lows over the Southern Plains that will each help to tighten the local pressure gradient, which combined with the diurnal thermal gradient, will bring breezy to windy conditions each day...with windier conditions expected later in the week. For now, forecasted winds stay below Wind Advisory criteria through the period. Lower dew points for the first half of the long term will provide more comfortable conditions through early next week before the high humidity returns and makes heat indices reach the triple digits for most of Deep South Texas (excluding the coast) by Thursday. Heat Advisories may be needed for the Rio Grande Plains and Upper Valley Friday and Saturday. Morning lows will be pleasantly cool with the drier air allowing temperatures to dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s through Tuesday, but when the dew points begin to climb, lows will begin to only dip into the lower to mid 70s by mid week, and mid to upper 70s by late week. By Friday, a deep mid level trough will dig into the western part of the country, giving Deep South Texas a southwesterly flow aloft...and helping temperatures to continue to rise. && .MARINE: Now through Sunday Night...Moderate south to southeast winds and 2-4 foot seas continue through the weekend with high pressure anchored over the central Gulf of Mexico. Slightly stronger winds will lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions (winds between 15 to 20 knots) over the Laguna and nearshore Gulf Waters Sunday afternoon. Monday through Saturday...Marine conditions will gradually become hazardous early next week as a series of low pressure systems tighten the local pressure gradient and thereby increase the winds and seas across the lower Texas coastal waters through the week. Small craft exercise caution (SCEC) conditions will develop by Monday afternoon and Small Craft Advisories will be possible Tuesday through the rest of the week for a combination of winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 75 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 96 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 99 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 76 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv Short Term...58-Reese Long Term...69-Farris