079 
FXUS66 KMTR 100955
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
255 AM PDT Tue May 10 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably cool and unsettled weather pattern will 
continue into Tuesday with well below normal temperatures and a 
chance of rain showers, especially over the interior hills. High 
pressure builds Wednesday with a return to dry and mild weather. 
Much warmer inland by this weekend as 80s return to the region 
with potential for low 90s inland.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:55 AM PDT Tuesday...A broad upper level 
trough remains parked over much of the West Coast. Embedded in the
upper trough is a robust cold core upper level low pressure near 
the Redwood Coast. This system brought, below normal temperatures,
showers with small hail, and high elevation snow showers to the 
region on Monday. A similar set-up is expected today. 

KMUX radar imagery continues to show widely scattered showers 
over the coastal waters pivoting counter-clockwise around the 
upper low currently positioned over Eureka. A few of these showers
will reach land during the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures early
this morning are rather chilly with interior locations in the 
upper 30s to near 50. Higher elevations remain in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. Therefore, some patchy frost will be possible over the 
higher terrain with snow showers. There may be a brief lull in 
shower activity after sunrise, but the upstream upper low is 
forecast to sweep through the N Bay and E Bay later this 
afternoon. As this happens, convective showers will become more 
numerous around the Bay Area and Central Coast, especially Napa 
county through the East Bay Hills. Models continues support the 
chance for a thunderstorm or two over Napa county late this 
afternoon/evening. In addition, given the lower freezing levels 
any developed cell has the chances for small hail, even without 
thunder and lightning. Afternoon max temps will remain below 
normal with highs generally in the upper 50s to 60s, with 30s and 
40s in the hills. Shower activity will quickly fade after sunset 
as the upper level low moves eastward.

A warming and drying trend will develop on Wednesday behind the
departing upper level low. This trend will persist into the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday will reach 
the 60s to near 70 across the interior. Coastal areas and higher 
terrain will remain cool and in the 50s. A jump in temperatures is
expected on Friday with highs 60s to lower 70s coast and 70s to
80s inland. Further warming is expected on Saturday with highs in
the 60s an 70s coast and 80s to lower 90s interior. 

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:40 PM PDT Monday...For the 06Z TAFs. Cold
unstable air mass aloft will bring continued VCSH/patchy mid level
VFR-MVFR cigs overnight through tomorrow. Onshore winds remain 10
kt or lighter overnight but increase and become locally breezy to
gusty into tomorrow afternoon. Stronger onshore winds are 
expected Wednesday.

Vicinity of KSFO...Occasional SCT-BKN MVFR cigs w/ onshore winds
10 kt or less overnight. VCSH/brief -SHRA possible. FEW/SCT cigs 
AOA 3000 ft linger through tomorrow. Winds increase tomorrow 
afternoon with gusts up to around 25 kt. Stronger winds Wednesday.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay...Occasional SCT-BKN MVFR cigs w/ onshore winds 8 kt
or less overnight. VCSH/brief -SHRA possible. Onshore winds 
increase to 10 to 15 kt tomorrow afternoon. Cigs linger through
Tuesday. Increasing onshore winds Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...as of 10:31 PM PDT Monday...Steep and squared seas
linger around 10 to 12 feet every 10 to 12 seconds. Winds will
increase overnight and into Tuesday keeping  the northwest wind
driven sea state persisting through midweek.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 3 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay from 3 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: Murdock

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