438 FXUS64 KLUB 081125 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .AVIATION... VFR expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. West winds will increase this morning, strengthening further and becoming southwesterly by early afternoon. Sustained speeds in excess of 20 kt expected at all sites with gusts likely exceeding 30 kt by mid afternoon, especially at KLBB and KPVW. Light visibility restrictions will be possible due to BLDU but at this time VFR is expected to prevail. Check density altitude as record high surface temperatures are possible this afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022/ SHORT TERM... Another very hot, dry, and breezy day is on the way today with dangerous critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions expected area-wide. Upper level flow continues to back as longwave troughing deepens over the PacNW. Several embedded shortwaves within the southwesterly flow aloft remain progged to rotate over NM/CO today as the upper level height gradient tightens. A robust surface cyclone currently analyzed over SW Kansas as of 07z will pull northeastward today as additional surface troughing spreads southward into the Texas Panhandle. Gradient winds will strengthen rapidly late this morning as a result, with very deep mixing and a prolonged period of strong downslope southwesterly flow resulting in temperatures near and above 100F and extremely dry near-surface air with dewpoints in the low teens and single digits. Record-breaking heat will once again be possible this afternoon, with record highs at Lubbock (102 set in 1989) and at Childress (107 set in 2011) both within reach. The hot and very dry conditions will result in critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions area-wide today. Sustained southwest winds between 20 and 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph will facilitate rapid fire spread and potential extreme fire behavior as a midlevel speed max centers over the region during the afternoon and evening. Needless to say, given the continued very dry fuel states, extreme caution should be exercised today considering the potential for extreme wildfire behavior. For additional specifics regarding the anticipated evolution of today's fire weather event, see the Fire Weather section below. Breezy conditions will continue into the overnight hours as surface troughing continues to deepen over SE Colorado, with little in the way of moisture recovery expected overnight. Low temperatures will consequently be on the mild side once again tonight. /DWK LONG TERM... Unseasonably hot temperatures will at least continue through Monday but there is hope this week for relief. Thickness values will be decreasing on Monday, therefore temperatures may be a few degrees lower on Monday afternoon. Otherwise, similar conditions to Sunday are expected for Monday with very dry air and breezy southwest winds. The large upper level trough over western North America may have a positive effect for the region beginning on Tuesday. Mid and upper level flow will become increasingly meridional on Tuesday ahead of a short wave dropping southward along the west coast. This will be representative of a classic sloshing dryline pattern during the middle of this week. Low level moisture will begin to advect back into the region on Tuesday morning. Moisture advection will continue on Wednesday with possible minor short waves moving overhead during this time frame. However, these weak short wave are much better resolved in the short term than at this time range. Temperatures will continue to be above seasonal averages. Therefore, despite the increased low level moisture, any convection that develops would be relatively high based. Nonetheless, instability values will likely be very high but with fairly weak deep layer shear. Given the meridional flow and southerly low level winds, storm motion would be fairly slow or even training storms and could lead to heavy rainfall. Finally, on Thursday the short wave trough will eject out onto the Plains as a negatively tilted trough leading to another possible day of dryline thunderstorms. Analog guidance analysis depicts a favorable pattern for severe storms each afternoon from Tuesday through Friday. FIRE WEATHER... Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected area-wide today with potentially record-breaking heat and extremely dry air combined with ongoing very dry fuel states. Winds at the 20-foot level will initially remain out of the west at 15 to 20 mph this morning until about midday, when winds will strengthen and become southwesterly. Sustained wind speeds between 20 and 30 mph at the 20-foot level with gusts to 40 mph are expected this afternoon and evening, with minimum RH values ranging from 2 to 5 percent. The strongest winds are expected across the Caprock this afternoon into early evening. With RH values as low as 2 percent, extremely critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist for several hours today across much of the Caprock as RFTI values peak between 6 and 8. East of the Caprock Escarpment, winds are expected to remain slightly weaker, but critical conditions will still be widespread with RFTIs ranging from 4 to 6. Southwest winds will remain at or just above 15 mph well into the overnight hours, and with very poor RH recovery to less than 20 percent expected, the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect until 1 AM on Monday morning, with the potential for extension further into the overnight hours if winds remain stronger than anticipated. Critical fire weather conditions will likely continue for Monday across the entire region. Although temperatures will be a few degrees lower than Sunday, they will still be well above seasonal averages and with dry air in place will allow relative humidity values to drop into the single digits. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ021>044. Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ021>044. && $$ 30/30/01