075 FXUS63 KICT 080800 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 300 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 Overnight convection over Nebraska has dramatically weakened this morning, but a well-defined outflow boundary has pushed into northern Kansas bringing up to 45-mph wind gusts. Also some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will develop along this boundary. However, most of this activity will stay north of I-70 as very warm temperatures aloft will generally keep a lid on thunderstorm development further south. After 12Z, chances for storms north of I- 70 will diminish, but clouds will linger across eastern Kansas for most of the day where the main axis of moisture transport will reside. Upper ridging has set up over the Mid-West/Mississippi River Valley with the main ridge axis just to the east of the CWA. With this ridge being sandwiched between upper toughs over the western CONUS and the western Atlantic, it should stall close to it's current position through the beginning of the week. This will put most of Kansas underneath a southwesterly flow regime over the next few days. This pattern will promote warmer than normal temperatures through mid-week, and most will experience their first 90-degree temperatures of the year by today or Monday. For today, robust instability will materialize this afternoon east of a dryline that will position itself near the I-135 corridor. However, very warm temperatures aloft will likely keep a cap on any attempts at convection, so PoPs will be minimal. Clearer skies on Monday will allow temperatures to rise well within the 90s during the afternoon hours. On Tuesday, a subtle shortwave impulse and a frontal boundary sagging south into Kansas may be enough to trigger isolated to widely scattered storms for the area. However, even with MLCAPE around 3500-4500 J/kg, flow aloft will be weak likely keeping any thunderstorm development disorganized and mostly below severe limits, through a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Also, the isolated to widely scattered nature of any convection will likely mean most won't see any rainfall Tuesday evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun May 8 2022 This stagnant pattern will continue for most of the week allowing 90- degree temperatures to stick around through Thursday. However, relief from the warmer temperatures will come late in the week in the form of weak frontal boundaries which may support the development of isolated to widely scattered storms. The upper ridge is progged to begin weakening as the aforementioned upper level low off of the east coast retrogrades into the southeastern CONUS. This looks to give an opportunity for the western trough move into the northern plains by the end of next week. If this occurs, it will open the door for increased rain chances Thurs-Sat. This will also support cooler, more normal temperatures for this time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 7 2022 Low level moisture transport will continue to increase across south central KS into central KS. MVFR cigs are currently moving into south central KS, and after 07-08z this moisture transport will lead to MVFR cigs moving rapidly north into KGBD and KRSL. Could even see some IFR cigs near the KHUT/KGBD tafs sites as well. Some of the probabilistic solutions suggest we could even see some LIFR cigs. For now will stick with MVFR/IFR cigs, but may go with the lower cigs later this evening. The low level moisture transport will lead to a complex of storms developing over central or southern Neb, overnight. Think this convection will stay to the N-NE of the central KS taf locations, as it propagates into NE KS. There is some concern about this complex throwing out an outflow boundary that may drop south into central KS, with a potential wind shift to the North or Northeast. There is a very small chance of SHRA/TSRA developing along this outflow, across central KS. but for now will not mention any VCTS and see how this plays out. Ketcham && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 90 70 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 90 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 88 70 94 71 / 10 0 0 0 ElDorado 87 71 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 90 73 93 74 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 89 65 97 58 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 91 65 96 58 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 88 69 96 68 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 89 68 95 69 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 84 73 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 Chanute 82 72 90 74 / 10 0 0 10 Iola 81 71 90 73 / 10 0 0 10 Parsons-KPPF 83 72 89 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...Ketcham