981 FXUS61 KPHI 071945 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 345 PM EDT Sat May 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure to our north will gradually push a surface low off the Virginia coast southward through the first part of the upcoming week. High pressure will then build southward over our region through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Tonight... The strong storm offshore continues to circulate strong onshore winds across NJ and our parts of Delmarva up into SE PA. Winds headlines will remain up as strong gusts are expected to continue into the evening and early overnight. Rain, heavy at times, are expected to, but limited flooding is expected with the showery nature of the precip and no tstms expected. Still, the soggy ground and strong winds have contributed to several trees toppling across the CWA today. See the latest storm reports in out LSR and PNS statements. You can report storm damage using our webpage links. Sunday... The coastal storm will continue to creep SE across the western Atlantic as it remain rather deep. The onshore flow across the NW part of the storm will continue and bring more clouds and rains to the SE areas much of the day. Further NW across the southern Poconos and NW NJ, drier air will arrive and while rains may only be around early, clouds will be there much of the morning and early afternoon. High temperatures will show the unusual trend of being higher across the NW areas where some late day sun is possible. Readings there could climb into the upper 50s or perhaps low 60s. Further SE highs will again favor the low/mid 50s. Winds will continue to be gusty from the E or NE at 10 to 20 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph at times. The stronger gusts will be for the Delaware Valley and SE. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Conditions will continue to improve into next week as a closed H5 low drifts south-southeast along the coast away from our region and a positively-tilted mid-level ridge builds eastward forming a Rex Block. With the surface high remaining directly to our north, the pressure gradient will keep the persistent northeasterly flow directly into our region. A few lingering showers along the immediate coast early Monday will move offshore into the afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is expected. The main story will be the breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday and gradully moderating temperatures. Highs Monday look to sit in the low 60s, with the coolest highs closer to the coast where onshore cold air advection will persist. We add a few degrees as 850 mb levels inch upwards Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The Rex block begins to slowly deamplify into the second half of next week as the cutoff mid-level low sits off the Florida/Georgia coast. Ridging shifts westward and amplifies over the Central Plains and a trough digs into the Sierra Nevada. A weak surface low will move across the Hudson Bay region, trailing a cold front across the Great Lakes, but it should fizzle before making it to our region Thursday. Surface high pressure should gradually intensify and drift southward directly over our region. Gradually warming temperatures will lead to period of pleasant weather with highs starting out around 70 Wednesday and increasing to nearly 80 by Saturday. Lows should remain in the 50s Wednesday through Friday night, staying warmer Saturday night in the low 60s. Thankfully there appears to be excellent model consensus in that we should enjoy dry weather through the week. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight... Low CIGS/VSBYs to continue at most of the TAF sites tonight with mostly low-end MVFR to high-end IFR conditions much of the time. Mostly IFR at the shore ares though. Rain and gusty winds for most sites. The NW areas KRDG/KABE will likely see and end to rain and better VSBYS later tonight. Medium confid overall. Sunday... Improvement NW will trend slowly S during the morning with VFR returning back to VFR at KPHL after 18Z. Rain and low CIGS will prevail at KMIV/KACY much of the day. Limited confid in timing and category changes during Sunday. NE to E winds gusting 25 to 30 knots much of the day. Outlook... Monday...Mostly VFR with a chance for showers and MVFR conditions at ACY and perhaps as far inland as MIV. Winds from the northeast from 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 20 to 25 knots. Moderate confidence. Tuesday...VFR. Winds from the east-northeast from 10 to 15 knots with gusts from 20 to 25 knots. High confidence. Wednesday...VFR. Northeast winds from 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots at MIV and ACY. High confidence. Thursday...VFR. Northeast winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots at ACY. High confidence. && .MARINE... No changes were needed to the marine flags that are in place. Storm force winds/gusts into the evening as the strong coastal storm remain offshore. Rough seas for the ocean and Delaware Bay. Rain, heavy at times overnight. Weather gradually improving N to S on Sunday but Gales will continue then. Outlook... Monday...Gale conditions with northeast wind gusts from 35 to 40 knots and seas from 10 to 14 feet. Tuesday...Gale-force wind gusts in the morning will subside to SCA levels into the afternoon from 25 to 30 knots. Seas from 9 to 12 feet. Wednesday...SCA conditions likely to persist through most of the day with wind gusts from 20 to 25 knots gradually dropping below 25 knots into the afternoon. Seas from 6 to 9 feet slowly dropping below 5 feet into the overnight. Thursday...Seas may linger near 5 feet through the early afternoon, especially over the southern Atlantic Waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of onshore flow looks to continue for about a week. High pressure will be anchored to the north, and slow moving low pressure will remain to the south. This will be responsible for multiple cycles of elevated tides and tidal flooding. Beach erosion is also a concern with the prolonged onshore flow. Middlesex and Monmouth Counties...A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect 11 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday. Mostly advisory level coastal flooding is forecast for Perth Amboy, Sandy Hook, and Manasquan. Advisory level coastal flooding is forecast Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The highest tidal departures appear to be towards Manasquan where the high tide cycle Sunday evening into Monday morning could again reach advisory level conditions. The persistent northeast flow will likely result in the back bays remaining elevated through at least Tuesday (e.g., Shrewsbury Bay). Ocean County... A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Noon Saturday to 6 PM Saturday Evening. A Coastal Flood Warning is also in effect from 11 PM Saturday evening to 7 AM Sunday morning. A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued this morning for Ocean County as Barnegat bay is already averaging a 1.3 ft surge. This will easily place the Saturday afternoon high tide above minor flood stage. The successive high tide Saturday evening/ Sunday morning will be the most impactful with around 2.5 to 3.0 ft of surge forecast. The high tide cycles after this will likely remain in minor flooding thanks to the persistent northeast flow. Moderate tidal flooding could again be reached Sunday evening/ Monday morning. Atlantic and Cape May Counties... A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday evening to 7 AM Sunday morning. The Saturday evening/ Sunday morning high tide will likely be the most impactful with the subsequent two high tide cycles having lower astronomical high tides. Still though, minor coastal flooding is likely through Monday. The back bays will also be very slow to drain given the persistent onshore flow. Sussex County (DE)... A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday evening to 7 AM Sunday morning. Minor level coastal flooding is possible with the Saturday afternoon high tide. At this point, confidence was not high enough for an advisory, but this will need to be watched. The Saturday evening/ Sunday morning high tide will likely be the highest, but multiple rounds of coastal flooding is likely, with Rehoboth and Indian River Bays remaining elevated through Tuesday. Another coastal flood warning appears that it will be needed Sunday evening/ Monday morning. Cumberland County... A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from midnight to 6 AM Sunday morning. There appears to be two primary high tide cycles of concern. The first high tide cycle of concern will be the Sunday morning high tide. The next high tide cycle of concern will be Monday morning. Kent County... A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 PM Saturday evening to 7 AM Sunday morning. This decision was made to upgrade Kent County to a warning given that Bowers Beach is already running with a 2.3 ft storm surge. This will likely increase to 3.2 to 3.5 ft by early Sunday morning. The highest level high tide will likely be the Sunday morning high tide with moderate coastal flooding forecast. Minor level coastal flooding will then be possible through Monday. New Castle and Salem Counties...A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 2 AM to 8 AM Sunday morning. This decision was made to upgrade New Castle and Salem Counties to a warning given that Reedy Point is already running a 1.3 ft storm surge. This will likely increase to 2.5 to 2.8 ft by early Sunday morning. The highest level high tide will likely be the Sunday morning high tide with moderate coastal flooding forecast. Minor level coastal flooding will then be possible through Monday. Gloucester, Camden, Northwestern Burlington, Delaware, Philadelphia, and Lower Bucks Counties... A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 6 AM to 11 AM Sunday morning. Multiple round of advisory level coastal flooding will be possible through Monday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-104-106. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ070-071-106. NJ...High Wind Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ020-022>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ020- 026. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ020>023-027. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ016. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ012-013-015>019. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ017>019. Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Sunday for NJZ012>014-021. DE...Coastal Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004. Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Davis Near Term...O'Hara Short Term...Davis Long Term...Davis Aviation...Davis/O'Hara Marine...Davis/O'Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI