418 FXUS64 KSJT 051120 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 620 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 Cold front advancing across the South Plains early this morning, south of Lubbock and moving south fairly quickly. A few showers and storms trying to develop along and just north of the boundary. Just south of the front, IR imagery is showing an area of mid level instability developing from near Fort Stockton northeast to Snyder. As the lift from the front reaches the area of mid level instability, showers and storms may become a little more widespread at least briefly, before the front undercuts the mid level instability and moves even farther into West Central Texas. How widespread is still the million dollar question, with even the high-res CAMs struggling with their solutions. Latest HRRR keeps convection very limited until well after sunrise as the front reaches into the Heartland and Hill Country, a solution that is starting to be backed up by some of the other models. Have trimmed back POPs just a little around San Angelo and Abilene, while boosting POPs a little farther east around Mason and Brady. Otherwise temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today even behind the front, with considerably more sunshine than what we saw on Wednesday. Drier air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 LONG TERM... ...Triple digit heat expected from Saturday through Monday. More active pattern forecast for next week with dryline thunderstorms possible... As the upper trough exits to the east, upper level ridging will set up for the early portion of the weekend. This will keep conditions dry and allow for the heat to soar. Friday will see highs climb into the mid and upper 90s for much of the area with the warmest temperatures to the south and west. Not only will we see west to southwest winds bringing some downslope heating but the 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to slide into the western portions of our area. 850 mb temps by Friday will already be in the 26-28 deg C range. However, in comparison to Saturday through Monday, Friday is just the precursor. Clear to mostly clear skies will allow for peak to near peak insolation each day. Lee cyclogenesis in Colorado on Saturday will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the area meaning winds will be breezy out of the southwest, which will only ramp up the warm air advection into the area. By Saturday, the 850 mb thermal ridge axis will be positioned well over West Central Texas with 850 mb temps in the 28-31 deg C range. All of this will translate into daytime highs in the low to mid 100s areawide for Saturday. This pattern will continue through Sunday as well as Monday to a slightly lesser degree. High temperatures these days will reach into the upper 90s to low and possibly even mid 100s. This will increase fire weather concerns each day, Saturday through Monday, as the rise in temperatures will cause RH values to tank well below 20% each day. And with gusty winds, currently forecasted to border on red flag criteria, it is something we will be watching closely. One stipulation to the dry and hot forecast for Monday is that we will start to see the edge of a broad upper level trough axis move into the West Central Texas area late Sunday into Monday. With a slight increase in synoptic lift and gulf moisture starting to work its way back into at least southern and eastern portions of the area, mid range models are hinting at some shower and storm activity off of a dryline late Monday. This pattern is expected to potentially increase in intensity by Tuesday as winds shift to a more south/southeasterly direction, allowing for more gulf moisture to spread further north and west. Not only this but an upper low in the Intermountain West will open up and start to eject eastward through mid next week to further increase potential lift. There is still obviously a lot of uncertainty this far out but for now we will keep PoPs at or just below slight chance for the possibility of afternoon and evening thunderstorms most days next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022 A few showers and storms have developed west of KABI as a cold front sweeps south into the area. A stray shower will be possible at KABI and KSJT through mid morning or so, but better chance for storms will be across the southern and eastern terminals later this morning. Winds will shift to the north and northwest behind the front. MVFR and some IFR cigs have developed across most of the area both ahead of and behind the front. These should continue through much of the morning, but drier air working its way into the area will lead to decreasing clouds and VFR conditions for the afternoon and through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 83 55 95 64 / 30 0 0 0 San Angelo 87 57 98 67 / 20 0 0 0 Junction 87 57 96 67 / 50 0 0 0 Brownwood 83 54 95 64 / 70 0 0 0 Sweetwater 83 57 96 64 / 20 0 0 0 Ozona 87 58 96 65 / 20 0 0 0 Brady 84 58 95 67 / 80 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...07