558 FXUS65 KFGZ 031752 RRA AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ Issued by National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1051 AM MST Tue May 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Strong, gusty southwest to west winds today along with low relative humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions. Lighter winds Wednesday before a warming trend starts Thursday through the end of the week. Things will change from breezy to windy by the weekend, causing a return of elevated fire weather conditions. && .UPDATE...Morning satellite images are showing scattered high clouds moving across northern Coconino, Navajo and Apache counties. Winds have been gusting 25 to 30mph across the Colorado and Coconino Plateaus this morning and a few gusts in excess of 30 mph have been noted near and east of Flagstaff along the Little Colorado River. Winds will remain elevated through the afternoon across these areas and the Wind Advisories in effect for the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, San Francisco Mountains, and the White Mountains into this evening look good. No changes were needed to the forecast grids this morning. && .DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...Another spring day and another burst of strong, gusty winds, leading to critical fire weather conditions for dry northern Arizona. An upper-level trough is currently centered over southern Idaho with it's axis extending through Nevada into southern California. For northern Arizona, south-southwest winds have already increased with breezy winds developing overnight. This trough will continue traveling east-southeastward, bringing strong, gusty winds to northern Arizona throughout the day. The strongest winds will initially be from the Kaibab Plateau stretching to the western Mogollon Rim this morning, but these winds will quickly strengthen and expand to much of northeast Arizona by the late morning. Peak afternoon wind gusts are forecast to be 35 to 45 mph with localized areas in the Chuska Mountains and along Black Mesa reaching speeds above 50 mph. Not only will the wind be an issue, but very dry conditions continue with relative humidity values in the teens and approaching single digits for some areas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Little Colorado River Valley northward including Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains. Additionally, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the aforementioned areas, the White Mountains, the Kaibab Plateau, and portions of the western Mogollon Rim which includes the Flagstaff area. While critical fire weather conditions are not technically being met in the other regions of northern Arizona such as Yavapai County and northern Gila County, dangerously dry conditions remain. Please practice caution and avoid any activities that could lead to the creation of sparks. Winds will subside Wednesday morning. Relatively light breezes in comparison to today can be expected Wednesday afternoon with the prevailing winds being out of the northwest. Seasonal temperatures are forecast for tomorrow as the trough pushes eastward. This will be followed by a ridge developing over Arizona beginning Thursday, leading to temperatures climbing. Temperatures will be seasonally warm Thursday and Friday with afternoon highs roughly 10 degrees above normal. Breezy conditions will continue each afternoon as is typical for this time of year. By the weekend, the ridge will move eastward, being replaced by zonal flow setting up the potential for more shortwaves to impact Arizona. At this time, models are indicated the first trough to arrive late Saturday into Sunday morning with the primary change predictably being winds strengthening as the trough once again stays mainly north of Arizona. Uncertainty remains with the timing of this disturbance. Elevated fire weather concerns will come with the associated winds. However, a very modest increase in moisture is expected with humidity values seeing some improvements. Hopes should be tempered for rain as the probability of precipitation is low with models showing the best case scenario being isolated trace amounts. Looking to the end of the forecast period, another more robust trough could bring significant changes by the middle of next week. Stay tuned for updates. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z TAF package...Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to veer through the day, becoming due westerly in the afternoon with speeds 15-25 kts and gusts to 35 kts. Overnight, gusts will settle as the direction shifts northwesterly. Late- morning Wednesday, northwest winds will pick up with gusts between 20 and 25 kts. VFR conditions will continue under scattered high clouds this morning, and clear skies through the remainder of the TAF period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...The warm and dry weather pattern will continue through Wednesday. Windy conditions will develop today resulting in critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon across northeast Arizona. A Red Flag Warning is in effect. Elsewhere, near-critical conditions are anticipated. Lighter northwest winds are forecast for Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Look for very warm daytime temperatures and dry conditions. Breezy southwest winds will return for Thursday and Friday ahead of another round of very strong winds on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ109>114-139-140. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ005-009>014-017-039-040. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ004-015. && $$ UPDATE...Planz PUBLIC...JM AVIATION...Varian FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff