671 FXUS64 KOHX 030940 AAA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Nashville TN 440 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 Updated for Wording Clarity .DISCUSSION... Earlier this morning convection has moved northeastward into south central KY. Shortly after 03/09Z(4 AM CDT This Morning) a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms was approaching West TN. Consensus model blended solution lean through next Monday afternoon, but continued timing differences between individual model solutions noted. An unsettled weather pattern continues to be in store for mid state region today through at least Thursday night. Expecting bulk of convection to our west to slowly move eastward and reach western portions of mid state region by late afternoon hours. Model soundings profiles and derived indicies continue to support some strong to severe thunderstorm development late afternoon through evening hours tonight across much of mid state region as a cold front moves into our area and shortwave disturbances, aiding in convective development, in initial quasi southwesterly flow late this afternoon continue in more quasi zonal flow tonight. Another seasonably warm day in store for mid state region today with highs low to mid 80s. Surface cold front should push through area tonight, and position itself across central portions of Deep South by early Wednesday evening. Building upper level ridging influences should keep most of mid state dry later tonight into Wednesday. Lows tonight should reflect surface cold frontal passage ranging mid 50s northwest to mid 60s southwest. Highs on Wednesday will return to seasonal normal values generally mid to upper 70s. Upper level pattern will shift from ridging on Wednesday to pronounced southwesterly flow with mainly upper level trough passage as Thursday night progresses. Above mentioned stationary front across Deep South is then expected to push back as a warm front as day on Thursday progresses, with yet another surface cold front knocking at the western portion of mid state region shortly after sunrise on Friday. Several upper level shortwave disturbances will be embedded, aiding in convective development, within upper level flow, with once again some strong to severe thunderstorms possible per model sounding profiles and derived indicies showing good moisture, instability, and lifting mechanisms to be in place, especially for locations around and west of I-65 Corridor Thursday night. Surface cold front will push eastward across area as Friday progresses with showers and thunderstorms possible, with lingering showers into Saturday. Leaned toward latest GFS model solution/ consistency here. If one leans toward latest GFS solution, this upper level low develops a northeasterly track thereafter into New England Area, or if one leans toward latest ECMWF solution, moves southeastward thereafter to off southeast U.S. Coastline by Sunday evening, keeping cloudiness and precipitation chances a little longer across our area. Total QPF rainfall amounts will range one to two inches today through Saturday afternoon. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through Thursday night, with a cool down to around seasonal normal values Friday into Friday night. High temperatures on Saturday after above mentioned surface cold frontal passage expected to actually fall below seasonal normal values into low to mid 70s, upper 60s Cumberland Plateau Region. However, with southerly flow once again becoming established and upper level ridging influences building across mid state region Sunday into Monday, dry conditions will prevail but warming temperatures to above seasonal normal values are expected once again. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF DISCUSSION. A warm front will continue to lift northward tonight, with a few upper level impulses coming into play within the warmer sector. Instability levels do taper off across the taf areas, so the chance of strong storms is rather low for the taf sites this evening. Otherwise, periods of scattered tstms will persist overnight. On Tuesday. a cold front will approach late in the day, so afternoon convection will again be possible. Cigs and vsbys should remain within VFR levels despite the scattered convection. Southerly gradient winds will pick up on Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 59 78 60 85 / 60 60 20 10 50 Clarksville 81 54 75 57 82 / 60 50 10 10 60 Crossville 81 60 74 54 80 / 40 50 30 10 40 Columbia 84 60 79 58 86 / 50 60 20 10 50 Lawrenceburg 83 62 79 59 85 / 50 60 20 10 40 Waverly 82 55 76 58 84 / 60 60 10 10 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION......JB Wright AVIATION........21