872 FXUS64 KHGX 030858 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 358 AM CDT Tue May 3 2022 .SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]... We have been monitoring the progress of the line of showers and thunderstorms moving south southeastward from North Central TX this morning, which still looks healthy enough to make it across the northern sectors of Southeast TX around sunrise. In addition, a mid to upper level shortwave embedded in the zonal flow aloft will begin to move across Southeast TX around the same time, while a cold front stalls just to our north. Persistent onshore flow maintaining sufficient moisture on the surface (PWs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches) and very good SFC/MU CAPE along with mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km this morning should support the livelihood of these storms as they move across areas north of I-10 as well as support additional storms developing locally. During the afternoon, may see a gradual decrease in activity as the cap gets stronger across the local area. Based on forecast soundings, if any strong storms develop, they may be capable of producing hail, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, expect another breezy, warm and humid day with southerly winds of 10-15 MPH with higher gusts on occasion and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. Although skies will scatter out in the afternoon, mostly cloudy conditions are expected to return tonight, thus, expect lows to be mostly in the mid 70s range again tonight into early Wednesday morning. There is a chance of some patchy fog though winds may not relax enough to support it. Thus, kept it out of this forecast package, but some spots that could end up getting patchy fog would be areas in and around Conroe and Huntsville. For Wednesday, weak mid to upper level ridge moving through the area along with the cap being stronger will result in mostly dry conditions for Southeast TX. There may be some rain making into the northernmost sectors in the afternoon/evening from showers and storms developing across the northern and central portions of TX, but chances are low. Wednesday will be another warm and fairly humid day with afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will pick up again as the pressure gradient re-strengthens with speeds ranging between 15- 20 MPH and higher gusts, so it will at least help with how hot it will feel outdoors (keeping apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s). Lows Wednesday night into early Thursday morning will be in the low to mid 70s. 24 && .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]... The next cold front will be moving into the area during the day on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this boundary, and there could be an increasing risk of strong/severe storms as the day progresses (see SPC's Day 3 Convective Outlook) especially in/around some of our northern counties and further off to the northeast toward the Arklatex area where greater instability will be found. Will continue to carry our higher rain chances up north and our lower rain chances south, but this configuration could end up changing depending on if/where/when any boundaries set up. Look for decreasing rain chances heading into Thursday night and Friday morning. The forecast then stays dry and increasingly warm/humid over the weekend and on into the start of the next week. Our next chance of rain might end up being on Tuesday afternoon and/or Tuesday night. For temperatures, most areas should stay in the 80s on Thursday due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances. The warming trend looks to begin on Friday (inland highs mainly in the low 90s) and persist over the weekend and into early next week (inland highs around the mid 90s). Heat index values above 100 are in the forecast for Saturday through Tuesday. Heat Advisories will not be needed for these numbers, but precautions should still be taken if planning on any extended outdoor activity. 42 && .MARINE... A mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas will persist into midweek. Caution/advisory flags will be needed at times. A weak cold front will move into southeast Texas during a Thursday afternoon through Friday morning time period. This will probably be our best chance of rain for the remainder of the week and on into the start of the weekend. Winds and seas will slightly diminish as the front moves closer, but then pick up again heading into the weekend. 42 && .CLIMATE... After having their warmest April on record, new record high minimum temperatures have been set at Galveston for the first two days of the new month, and more records could be coming over the next several days not only at Galveston but also at some of our other three main climate sites. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 90 73 90 73 86 / 30 0 10 20 60 Houston (IAH) 89 74 88 74 88 / 30 0 10 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 86 77 86 76 84 / 10 10 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CDT today for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$