779 FXUS63 KIWX 261026 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 626 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Temperatures will drop to around 30 tonight with widespread frost expected. Highs will only be in the 40s on Wednesday and additional frost is possible Wednesday night. Temperatures moderate for the end of the week with increasing chances of rain by the weekend && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Potent midlevel vort max will dive into MI today. Our CWA remains in an unfavorable location relative to midlevel CVA and upper jet positioning. However...latest guidance has trended slightly further southwest with the track and minor low level pressure trough could touch off a few sprinkles in our far northern counties during midday as suggested by most of the latest hi-res models. Midlevel moisture is lacking and surface wet bulbs appear warm enough (though not by much) to support liquid ptypes. QPF will be very light given limited moisture and forcing. Could easily argue for going with just 10 PoP and sprinkles but coverage and intensity looks high enough to warrant some chance showers (again, just in our far north). Rest of the CWA will remain dry with highs in the upper 40s to around 50F. Stratus deck has been more persistent than expected and this will likely continue through the morning but anticipate some clearing by the afternoon...especially in our SW zones. Lows tonight a bit more challenging than previously anticipated given some uncertainty in cloud trends based on latest model RH fields. However...do still expect at least partial clearing during the middle of the night between stratocu exiting NE early and high clouds associated with elevated theta-e advection entering our west Wed morning. Surface winds will also be much lighter as surface anticyclone settles into the Ohio Valley. 00Z guidance envelope remains tightly clustered around 29-33F and have therefore made only very minor changes to going forecast. Growing season has begun in our area and therefore decided to hoist a freeze warning. Some areas in our far S/SW may struggle to hit the magic 32F (or just hit it briefly) but anticipating upper 20s in our my northern counties. In order to keep things simple...will just go with a freeze warning everywhere. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Wed night lows are much more complicated as baroclinic zone is slated to setup just to our west. Numerous clouds and perhaps even some showers are possible in our far west while our far east remains mostly clear with calm winds and lows once again 28-31F. Will obviously hold off on any headlines for this period. Wed highs will be quite cool (especially near Lake MI given northerly flow) with 40s expected for most locations. Temps moderate on Thu as pattern slowly progresses eastward. Maintained some low chance PoP's in our far west Thu night as populated by concensus blend but wouldn't be surprised at all for ECMWF/Canadian solution to verify and our area remain dry. Similar story heading into Fri night and Sat. Continued to cut back on concensus PoP's in favor of slower ECWMF and Canadian solution (even deterministic 00Z GFS is dry through Fri night). Precip is likely by late Sat into Sun as upper low approaches with wet conditions appearing likely into next week. Temps should remain near average for early May though there is a high degree of uncertainty in exact pattern for next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning) Issued at 625 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 The cold front that brought the storms two days ago slips away from the area and a high pressure system comes in from the northwest. Clouds will linger into the early afternoon with a chance for a few hours of MVFR CIGs mid morning into midday. Winds will generally stay out of the northwest, but will pick up during the late afternoon as clouds begin to break up. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ Wednesday for INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034. MI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ077>081. OH...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ001-002- 004-005-015-016-024-025. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AGD SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...AGD AVIATION...Roller Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana