468 FXUS63 KMPX 222030 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 330 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorm and severe threat has shifted to northern Minnesota the rest of tonight. - Winds gusting to near 50 mph are expected in western MN on Saturday. - Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. A few storms could be severe, but a significant and widespread severe weather event is not anticipated. - Near record lows expected Tuesday and Wednesday morning. Tonight...Surface cyclogenesis is ongoing this afternoon over northeast CO. A strong warm front associated with this low was lifting north across Iowa. Strong isentropic lift ahead of the warm front has lead to the scattered showers we've seen much of the day. There's enough elevated instability and shear present that we could see an stronger cell or two, but the severe threat looks fairly limited with this activity, with the HREF holding the stronger updrafts to northern MN tonight. This warm front will lift into northern MN this evening, at which point, the MPX CWA looks to lack forcing to overcome capping associated with a warm and dry EML that moves in behind the warm front. This looks to keep the MPX area dry through the night, with the focus for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity shifting to northern MN. South winds behind the warm front will result in temperatures slowly rising through the night as progressively warmer and more moist air moves in. For Saturday, the surface low will work northeast, ending up in the Red River Valley by the end of the day. By the afternoon, a cold front will be pushing across MN. Looking at soundings, that inversion that moves in overnight will still be in place on Saturday, so we will need something to force convection through the capping. That forcing looks to be convergence on the front. Still uncertainty on how widespread or strong any of that convection will be. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to weaken quite a bit through the day, with the steepest lapse rates shifting off into central WI. The lose of the steeper lapse rates will greatly reduce our instability, with the HREF only showing 500-1000 j/kg of CAPE developing ahead of the front. Hodographs look fairly straight and given the forcing, anything that develops Saturday will quickly become linear. Given the lapse rates and weaker instability, we're not looking at much of a large hail threat in this setup, with our biggest severe risk coming from the ability for any storms to mix some of the stronger momentum present down to the surface. To summarize the sever threat for Saturday, it exists, but doesn't look spectacular, with the greatest risk residing for the eastern half of MN into WI. The other hazard for Saturday will be the strong winds. We did expand the advisory across western MN up into Glenwood and Morris areas, where 30-35 mph sustained winds look most likely. It will be breezy across much of the area with gusts to between 35 and 40 mph, but need for a significant expansion to the current wind advisory looks unlikely. For Saturday night, the cold front will move across the area, ushering much drier and cooler air. By Sunday morning, we should be seeing a few spots back down in the 30s in western MN as our brief stint of spring warmth gets quickly pushed out of here. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 Showers and low stratus are pushing across the area today out ahead of a warm front that is pushing north across Iowa. Expect on/off showers to continue until the warm from pushes through a location, which looks to happen around 3z at RWF/MKT and closer to 9z for AXN and EAU. Expect everyone to see at least IFR cigs this afternoon, with AXN/RWF/STC having potential for LIFR cigs/IFR vis. Uncertainty with cigs is high behind the warm front. RAP soundings and HREF probs say we go VFR behind this front. Didn't want to go that extreme with the cig forecast, but do bump things back up to high MVFR levels behind the warm front, which is similar to what we've seen behind the warm front down toward Kansas City this morning. KMSP...Warm front looks to lift through MSP around 4z, which will bring an end to the shra/dz threat. Lots of uncertainty with the cigs behind the warm front, which models show ranging from around 012 to little, if any, cloud cover. We could see a dying line of showers between 13z and 16z, otherwise, we're waiting on the cold front late Sat afternoon for the next precip chance. Monday through Friday...The early part of the extended forecast will remain dry, but cold. Strong west/northwest winds will persist from Sunday into Monday, with gusts near 30mph not out of the question. Highs in the 40s Monday through Wednesday will feel bitter cold compared to Saturdays highs in the 70s. Winds should die down by Tuesday, but near record lows are expected Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The record at MSP on Tuesday morning is 26, set in 1950. As for STC, the record is 22, set in 1907. The current forecast is on track to come within a few degrees of both of those records! Wednesday mornings record lows at MSP and STC are much cooler (21 and 12, respectively), so those will be safe. Take a step over the border, and EAUs record will be in jeopardy on Wednesday morning with a forecast within a few degrees of the record low of 23 set in 1996. It is safe to say, we will enter the last week of April far below normal temperature wise. If you're wondering why we have been having a seemingly cold spring, effects from the ongoing La Nina is a likely culprit, at least in part. As we approach the end of the week, the chance for precipitation returns as temperatures begin to moderate towards normal. As for where, how much, and what precipitation type we will see, not much more can be said at the moment because the models are largely in disagreement with wide spreads. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind W 10-20G35kt. Crosswinds possible. Mon...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Brown-Chippewa- Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens- Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG/PEM AVIATION...MPG