276 
FXAK67 PAJK 182304
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
304 PM AKDT Mon Apr 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...High pressure is the main influencer of the weather
for the panhandle and the eastern Gulf of Alaska through Monday. 
A complex area of low-pressure centers southwest of Haida Gwaii is
rotating one of the lows into the SE Gulf. 

Most of Southeast Alaska will stay under the partly cloudy to 
mostly cloudy skies tonight and into early Tuesday. With these 
overnight lows so a little below freezing to the mid-30s, for the 
northern panhandle with highs Tuesday upper 40s to lower 50s. A 
trough/front will be spreading into the southern panhandle 
lowering the cloud deck from the high clouds to mid to lower level
and PoPs of 30 to 60 percent will lift on Tuesday evening and 
night. Will need to watch this as the various model solutions are 
still working to refine positioning and timing. 

A weak mountain wave pattern in the Juneau area will be
responsible for winds gusting 40 to 45 mph downtown Juneau and
Douglas overnight, so have issued a Strong Wind headline for the
tonight time period. 


.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday night/...SE AK is still 
looking at an overall quiet week. Some leftover showers are 
possible early Wednesday along the coast but those should fade 
out quickly, leaving behind quiet weather.

Wednesday and Thursday are looking to play out quite nicely. 
Highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with decent evidence of
upper 50s to near 60 in the south.

Friday into the weekend is when the weather story changes. At the
500mb level, an area of low pressure is expected to move into the
gulf. While there are some timing issues between the ensemble 
averages, the story is the same – high pressure and quiet weather
breaks down and a low tracks into the gulf. This switch would 
mean rain moves in with lingering showers through the weekend. As 
mentioned before, the timing will be adjusted and fine tuned over 
the coming days but for now, the front and rain arrives late 
Friday night.

For marine areas – For Wednesday, pressure gradient may tighten a
bit for Lynn Canal so 15 to 25 kt winds are possible in the 
morning, but lighter winds are expected for the afternoon. 
Elsewhere, 10 to 15 kt winds are in the forecast. Thursday is 
looking pleasant with continued decreasing winds. So if the 
current forecast plays out, 10 to 15 kt in the morning, 5 to 10 
(or lighter) kts in the afternoon. Friday, the next front tracks 
toward the panhandle so winds would increase. As the front 
approaches, gulf wind speeds will increase to near 30 kt with 
inner channel winds increasing to 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.AVIATION...Turbulence and lower level wind shear will be around 
the Juneau area tonight due to mountain wave activity. Conditions 
will improve Tuesday. 

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 7 PM AKDT this evening through Tuesday morning 
     for AKZ025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031>034-041>043. 

&&

$$

Bezenek/GJS

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