568 FXUS64 KBMX 160812 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0310 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ Through Sunday. Currently watching a warm front slide eastward across the area, resulting in fairly widespread showers and storms. A few of these storms across the southern portions of the area have been able to maximize the instability aloft to produce some hail storms across our southern counties. This front will continue to slide east this morning before exiting the state right around sunrise. At the same time a MCV is currently spinning south and east across northern Alabama and generating a linear MCS that will continue to drop southward through the morning and into the early afternoon. Most of the convection remains elevated, so the severe threat remains marginal at best, with winds and large hail the main threat. As the line moved through Haleyville just recently, the gusts was 16 kts, so the overall stronger winds are still well off the surface. Will continue to monitor the trends through the rest of the morning as this boundary pushes south. Would expect an uptick in overall convection later this morning as the line reaches a little more favorable airmass. This boundary will stall across the southern portions of the later this afternoon. Biggest question here will be the exact location of the boundary once it stalls. As we work into the evening another MCS will likely develop and swing through area. The only question here will be the exact location. Models are hinting at a touch further north location so raised PoPs across the north to account for this. Severe dynamics looks best across the souther portions of the area on Sunday so will stay with the overall status quo for the threats. Although if we do see more activity in the north we may need to expand the marginally severe a bit to the north. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0310 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022/ Monday through Friday. The main cold front finally pushes through the area on Monday morning and drier weather will move into the region. The warming trend and drier air will persist through the end of the week. The could be one caveat to this though. A cold front will try to edge its way into our far northwestern on Thursday. Really looks like the main ridge over the southeast will win this battle and keep the front at bay for the rest of the extended period. Look for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s by Friday and into next weekend as a trough and upper low stall out in the western states. 16 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Currently watching a warm front move through the area with isolated to scattered convection along it. This line should be east of BHM/EET/MGM after 8z and east of ANB/ASN/TOI by 9z. At the same time a line of showers/storms will be sliding south from HUN/MSL toward TCL/BHM/ANB/ASN/EET by 8 to 9z. This line should then work into MGM/TOI by 11 to 13z. Clearing across the north between 15 and 18z and the south by 18 to 21z. An additional round of scattered showers/storms may develop and move across the south late after 00z as the boundary stalls over the area. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Several rounds of showers and storms will impact the area through early Monday morning. Dry conditions return by midday Monday behind a cold front, lasting through much of next week. Temperatures will be warming each day next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 76 54 72 55 70 / 80 20 60 90 20 Anniston 75 57 74 58 70 / 90 20 60 90 20 Birmingham 76 58 72 58 71 / 90 20 80 90 10 Tuscaloosa 75 59 73 57 73 / 90 30 80 90 10 Calera 75 60 73 60 72 / 90 30 80 90 20 Auburn 75 60 75 61 74 / 90 30 80 90 40 Montgomery 79 63 78 62 76 / 90 40 80 90 30 Troy 81 62 80 63 77 / 80 40 80 80 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$