054 FXUS64 KBMX 160603 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 103 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 .UPDATE... For 06Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1042 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ A surface warm front was located near the Alabama Mississippi state line late this evening. This boundary exhibited a rather strong gradient concerning moisture. East of the front (cooler side), surface dew points still remain in the 40s in most locations. Although these have increased from the very dry conditions this afternoon, it will be a continued slow rise overnight. A low level jet interacting with an EML has kicked off thunderstorms over Arkansas and Mississippi this evening. The low level jet (35-40kts) will translate eastward overnight. Have increased rain chances overnight west and also adjusted the higher pops slightly south. The instability overnight should be elevated but some will be very near the surface warm front. The instability and shear parameters would support a marginal wind and hail threat. Will continue the mention overnight and where this ends up will play a role in what ultimately plays out Saturday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0657 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ A warm front was near the Mississippi state line early this evening. The front has a very fine line of instability west to east across the boundary. Increased Bulk Shear was also along this axis and will spread eastward slowly overnight. Low level jet develops within a few hours and migrates from Mississippi into north and west Alabama. Overall moisture was still quite limited over Central Alabama and will only slowly increase the next few hours. The 00z BMX Raob has a EML with hefty lapse rates above it. Will increase pops the next few hours near the state line. Still anticipating an impulse to move northwest to southeast later tonight. The threat of severe with a few storms this evening is very low, but some small hail or wind gusts 30-40 mph are possible. Better chances of severe storms start later tonight as several waves will affect the region through early Monday. 75 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0320 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ Short Term. Through Saturday. A great day in store today across the area, with sunny skies and temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will be on the increase this afternoon across the north as we will be in a northwest flow aloft. At the same time we will see a warm front lift northward as the high pressure slides eastward. By Midnight a good portion of the area will be in the warm core and see dewpoints quite high across the area. At the same time a MCS will have developed during the peak heating of the day across the Missouri Valley along the cold front. This MCS and associated outflow will slide southward into the northern half of the area after 1 AM and then spread south through the overnight and into the day Saturday. As it encounters the airmass over Central Alabama, there should be enough to keep the steam of the system going and not totally squash the stronger storms. Thus look for the MCS to maintain is strength as it moves into the region. So it will likely be a loud overnight period for some, with strong to marginally severe storms possible. The main threats for overnight/Saturday will be damaging winds and large hail. Heavy rainfall will accompany the the storms as well, but the progressive nature of the system should be enough to limit widespread issues. This MCS will likely temper temperatures on Saturday so adjusted downward a touch in the central sections of the area. The far south may hit their highs around lunch, while the north may see their highs after 5 pm, with additional clearing. Continued with severe mention in the HWO but extended the time of concern. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0256 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ Some spread in the guidance regarding PoPs for Saturday night, with the CAMs being much drier than the non-CAMs. This will be dependent on how far south the outflow boundary from Saturday morning's MCS pushes. Will keep PoPs in the lower end chance category for now. No change to the forecast reasoning for the severe threat Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. May need to bump the risk area a bit further north if trends continue, but this will again depend on the outflow boundary from Saturday's MCS which will serve as an effective warm front. Forecast hodographs continue to suggest the tornado threat is minimal, unless the wave of low pressure ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The rest of the forecast looks dry; will have to monitor for patchy frost potential in the cooler northeastern valleys Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. 32/Davis Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0320 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ Saturday night through Thursday. A stalled front is expected to be located over the southern portions of the forecast area Saturday night. A brief lull in convection should occur in Saturday evening between shortwaves embedded within westerly flow aloft, but this will change on Sunday. The combination of the upstream shortwave moving into the Southern Plains and increasing upper-level diffluence will support an upswing in shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday morning from west to east. This activity should be focused near and north of the stalled front where southwesterly 850mb flow will contribute to isentropic lift. Destabilization appears likely by afternoon south of the front while upper-level support for warm sector convection continues to increase. Deep-layer shear around 40 knots appears supportive of strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail across our southern counties in the afternoon and early evening. Upscale growth into a cluster or bowing segments may occur. A period of mostly dry weather appears likely for Monday through Thursday. A large area of pressure will move in from the northwest on Monday as a strong trough moves into the eastern CONUS. Temperatures will be on the cool side Monday night and Tuesday night with lows in the 40s. Height rises across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf States on Wednesday and Thursday suggest that any weather systems will have difficulty penetrating into the Deep South. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Currently watching a warm front move through the area with isolated to scattered convection along it. This line should be east of BHM/EET/MGM after 8z and east of ANB/ASN/TOI by 9z. At the same time a line of showers/storms will be sliding south from HUN/MSL toward TCL/BHM/ANB/ASN/EET by 8 to 9z. This line should then work into MGM/TOI by 11 to 13z. Clearing across the north between 15 and 18z and the south by 18 to 21z. An additional round of scattered showers/storms may develop and move across the south late after 00z as the boundary stalls over the area. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and storms will move through the area from north to south late tonight and Saturday, with another round of showers and storms Sunday and Sunday night. Dry conditions return by midday Monday behind a cold front, lasting through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 76 54 72 56 71 / 80 20 60 90 20 Anniston 75 57 74 58 71 / 90 20 70 90 30 Birmingham 76 58 73 58 71 / 90 20 70 90 10 Tuscaloosa 75 59 74 58 74 / 90 30 70 90 10 Calera 75 60 74 59 73 / 90 30 70 90 20 Auburn 75 60 74 60 73 / 90 30 70 90 40 Montgomery 79 63 78 63 76 / 90 40 70 90 30 Troy 81 62 79 63 77 / 80 40 70 80 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$