132 FXUS62 KKEY 141939 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 339 PM EDT Thu Apr 14 2022 .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery highlights a broad belt of westerlies over the southern Plains, which splits into two branches near the Mississippi River Valley. One branch dives southeast across the Gulf of Mexico and continues across Cuba. The Florida Keys are on the northern edge of this subtropical jet, with deep mid-upper level northwesterlies sampled by this morning's KKEY RAOB. This morning's profile was moist up to 700 mb, giving way to a shallow inversion and steep lapse rates aloft. ML parcels were moderately unstable with very little inhibition. No wonder we have seen a few thunderstorms in the past 12-hours. The most recent radar imagery indicates we are in a downward trend, with a collapsed thunderstorm spreading its cool and stable pancake batter across the nearshore Gulf waters northwest of the Lower Keys. Farther upstream, outflows from thunderstorms near and to the south of Andros are working to the northwest across the Bahama Banks. These storms formed within a meager blob of enhanced moisture according to TPW loops. .FORECAST... The subtropical ridge will remain across the western North Atlantic for the next few days, reaching west across Florida as a weakened ridge axis. Meanwhile, the split jet diving southeast across the Gulf of Mexico and Cuba will induce an inverted trough over the southeastern Bahamas. As this system lumbers to the north then northeast, mean layer steering across the Florida Keys will turn to the northeast. Over the next seven days, we highlight only slight rain chances (10-20%), which is near normal for this time of year. The deep layer subsidence will be displaced to our west, while the mid- upper level trough axis will be well to our east. Therefore, the profile should not preclude convection, although there remains to be seen any synoptic forcing mechanisms. Sources for rain and thunder will shift to mesoscale sources, such as convection spilling southwest from the Mainland, or storms collapsing to the west from Andros. Moderate breezes will persist through the weekend, then diminish somewhat Sunday night and Monday ahead of freshening northeasterly breezes Tuesday and Tuesday night. The best chances for South Florida to roll to the southwest will be Monday evening, when the breezes first make their turn to the northeast, but before the slightly drier air (dewpoints in the mid 60s) starts to filter into the Keys. By Wednesday or Thursday of next week, lower humidity and breezy east-northeasterlies will prevail across the Keys. && .MARINE... There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes tonight through Saturday night. Breezes will diminish somewhat Sunday night and Monday, in advance of freshening northeasterly breezes Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 18z/15th. Isolated showers have been increasing near both EYW and MTH terminals, therefore VCSH has been introduced for the next couple of hours. There is still uncertainty in timing and location of any potential shower activity overnight, therefore have omitted any mention of shower or thunder activity at this time. Otherwise east to southeast surface winds near 10 knots will gradually back to the east and decrease to 5 to 8 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history In 1952, the daily record high temperature of 87F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 75 84 74 85 / 20 10 20 10 Marathon 74 87 75 87 / 20 20 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...CLR Aviation/Nowcasts....Williams Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest