624 FXUS63 KGLD 112358 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 558 PM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 PM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Overview: A potent mid-latitude cyclone will develop in the lee of the Rockies tonight and track eastward through the Central Plains on Tuesday as an upper level low -- presently situated over the PAC NW -- progresses ESE-SE through the Intermountain West and central-northern Rockies. The latest model guidance suggests little in the way of precipitation with this system aside from a potential for isold/sct showers Tue afternoon -- mainly north of I-70 between 18-00Z. Strong winds (and associated hazards, i.e. fire weather/ dust) remain the primary concern. In particular, strong southwesterly winds followed by an abrupt northwesterly wind shift during the late morning/early afternoon (west) to mid-late afternoon (east). Maximum winds and the timing of the wind shift will highly depend upon the evolution of the lee cyclone. At this time, the greatest potential for severe southwesterly winds appears to be along/south of I-70.. along with Sheridan/Graham/ Norton/Decatur counties.. where strong to severe northwesterly winds may follow during the afternoon. Further north and west.. where southwesterly winds should be weaker.. the primary concern is strong to severe northwesterly winds.. associated with strong cold advection /rapid pressure rises/ during the late morning through early-mid afternoon. Additional details may be found in NPWGLD. Dangerous fire weather conditions are anticipated across the entire Tri-State area on Tuesday. Refer to RFWGLD for additional details. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 358 PM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 At the start of the long term period, model guidance shows the CWA having a southwesterly flow being between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west on Wednesday morning. Model guidance has the trough's axis crossing the CWA by the afternoon hours while an upper air low develops over the ND/SD border. Going into Thursday, the upper air low expects to move to the east into MN with CWA seeing a westerly flow aloft. On Friday, the low continues northeast into Canada while another low develops in the Pacific Northwest and the CWA keeps its westerly flow. By Friday evening, long term models show a ridge building in the west that moves eastward a bit though the GFS has a more subdued ridge due to the difference in placement in the western low. On Saturday, the ridge moves over the CWA with the western low opening up into a trough. The evolution of the western trough differs between the long term models going forward as the GFS shows a more neutral and subdued trough where the axis moves over the CWA late Sunday. The GFS also shows a shortwave disturbance moving through the CWA's flow aloft in the afternoon where the ECMWF does not. The ECMWF's solution has the axis of a more negatively tilted moving over the CWA during the late morning with the back end of the trough moving over the CWA by the late Sunday hours. The general long term pattern looks somewhat similar, but there are some important differences seen over the weekend that will be monitored for consistency in future model runs. At the surface, models appear to back off with precipitation chances compared to prior runs for early Wednesday. Kept some silent PoPs in with better chances in the west as there still could be some AM light showers, but not high confidence. The NBM90 was blended into the initialized grids for winds on Wednesday and Thursday in collaboration with neighboring offices to bring them up a little bit, but still look to be well below high wind criteria. Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns continue to be seen on Thursday and Friday within portions of the Tri-State area and may even be trending towards critical in some areas. Will continue to monitor this. The next chance for precipitation looks to be during the weekend, but PoPs continue to be rather low as there is quite the difference in surface low placement. The GFS has a surface low over SD on Sunday morning yielding no precipitation for the CWA while the ECMWF has the low more south into NE and showing some precipitation chances for the CWA. Again, will be monitoring for better consistency. The Tri-State area looks to see daytime high temperatures on Wednesday between the lower 40s and middle 50s followed by highs on Thursday between the lower and lower 60s. Friday sees warmer daytime high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s before highs on Saturday return to the lower to middle 60s. Sunday expects to be slightly warmer with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows on Wednesday night drop to the middle teens to lower 20s range with Thursday night seeing lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Upper 20s to lower 30s are expected on Friday night followed by middle 30s on Saturday night and upper 20s to lower 30s on Sunday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 546 PM MDT Mon Apr 11 2022 VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period at MCK and GLD. Skies will remain mostly clear with only scattered high clouds through the period. However, the main story revolves around the winds expected in advance of and behind a cold front that will move across the region by late Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, gusty south winds turn to the southwest with gusts near 35kts between 15-20Z. Then between 20-22Z, winds turn to the northwest at both GLD and MCK with gusts between 40-50kts possible. With gusts over 35kts expected along with dry conditions, areas of blowing dust could diminish visibilities below 6 miles. Since this is highly dependent upon local source regions for blowing dust, have left any significant decrease in visibility out of the TAFs at this time. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>004-013>016-027-028-041. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ001-002. High Wind Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Tuesday for KSZ003-004-013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ252>254. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ252>254. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for COZ090. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ091-092. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MDT /noon CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...076 AVIATION...LOCKHART