305 FXUS61 KCLE 112355 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves in later today and then stalls just south of the CWA Monday night and Tuesday. It will then lift back north as a warm front late Tuesday night. Will reside in the warm sector Wednesday, then a strong cold front pushes through Wednesday night. Chilly high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... No changes needed with this update outside of adjusting pops to reflect latest radar trends. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog and low stratus development over Lake Erie overnight tonight into Tuesday morning due to very little difference in dew points and surface temps on the lake. May have some fog issues along the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA if anything that develops manages to move inland. Inland locations may see fog during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday due to lingering low-level moisture, rapid clearing of clouds, and light surface winds. Previous Discussion... Given the lasting convection and overall showers, temperatures did not get as high as previously forecasted and have been updated to reflect that. The cold front will slowly move across our area throughout the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. There looks to be a marginal amount of instability associated with this front. This could lead to some stronger, sub-severe, storms with gusty winds and some lightning strikes, similar to what has been occurring throughout the day today. Overnight, a surface high pressure will move into our region from the west and push the cold front south. As high pressure settles in Tuesday morning, we should have a very pleasant day. High temperatures on Tuesday look to top out in the 60s with gradually clearing of clouds behind the front. We won't be able to savor the pleasant and mild weather for long as warm front will begin to move into the area from the south. Warm advection and increased cloud cover will occur Tuesday night as the warm front will bring another round of unsettled weather for Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Southwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwave troughs affect our CWA Wednesday through Wednesday night as we become sandwiched between a ridge axis aloft in vicinity of the U.S. east coast and a an extensive longwave trough aloft over the western and central U.S. The trough's embedded mid- to upper-level low should drift eastward across ND. At the surface, a southerly to southwesterly flow contributes to low-level warm and moist air advection from the Gulf of Mexico between the core of the Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge and a cold front approaching from the Upper MS Valley and western Great Lakes. This front should sweep eastward across northern OH and near the PA border by daybreak as an occluded low moves generally northeastward from the Upper MS Valley toward Lake Superior. Peeks of sunshine through a mostly cloudy sky and the low-level WAA should boost afternoon highs to the low to mid 70's. Lows should then settle into the upper 40's to lower 50's Wednesday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected as a surface trough accompanies the first northeastward shortwave trough passage, the low-level return flow of moist and unstable air from the Gulf of Mexico undergoes isentropic ascent aloft, and the cold front begins to cross our region. Model soundings depict weak to moderate MUCAPE amidst primary moderate to strong vertical wind shear, with the tendency for MUCAPE to become surface-based via daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization late Wednesday morning through early evening, especially west of I-71. This is where moderate DCAPE up to ~800 J/kg, large MUCAPE in the hail growth zone, and favorable melting levels should support some risk of severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail, respectively. Some model sounding data indicate sizable veering and strengthening of low- level flow with height, large surface-based ESRH, and low mixed layer LCL heights may support a tornadic supercell. Farther east, cannot rule-out elevated thunderstorms with severe hail. SPC has much of northern OH included in either a marginal or slight risk of severe storms, with the slight risk (level 2 of 5) encompassing most of our I-75 corridor counties. At this point, afternoon and early evening are the preferred window for any severe storms. Precip chances diminish greatly from west to east behind the cold front as a dry slot overspreads our area. Flow aloft remains southwesterly Thursday through Thursday night as the longwave trough begins overspreading our CWA from the west and the embedded mid- to upper-level low drifts east-northeastward from ND to southwestern ON. The cold front and scattered rain showers along/ahead of it should exit the rest of our CWA to the east by midday. A surface trough lingers over our CWA while a surface ridge shifts from the south-central U.S. toward the central Appalachians and attempts to build into our region. This pattern should favor fair weather behind the front. Near-normal highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's are expected Thursday afternoon. Lows should range from the upper 30's to mid 40's overnight Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cyclonic westerly flow aloft persists Friday through Saturday night as the longwave trough moves eastward and its embedded mid- to upper- level low moves from southwestern ON to northern QC. This pattern favors net surface troughing in our CWA, while a secondary eastward cold front passage should occur on Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, especially via self-destructive sunshine during the late morning through early evening hours and along the front. The unusually-cold air mass may even support lake-effect or enhanced showers generally east-southeast of Lake Erie Saturday night. Rain showers may mix with wet snow in the higher terrain of northwest PA overnight Saturday night. Daytime highs should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's Friday and be followed by overnight lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's Friday night. Saturday's daytime highs should reach the 50's before overnight lows settle into the low to mid 30's Saturday night. Odds favor fair weather on Sunday as stabilizing high pressure at the surface and aloft builds eastward. Daytime highs should range from the mid to upper 40's in northwest PA to mainly the low to mid 50's in northern OH. Precip chances should increase Sunday night and Monday via moist isentropic ascent accompanying a low pressure system at the surface and aloft that should approach from the northern Great Plains. Daytime highs are forecast to be similar to Sunday's. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... Stratiform rain will continue to produce non-VFR conditions at most terminals for the next few hours, before precip ends from northwest to southeast overnight. In addition to precip ending, ceilings will quickly rise to VFR. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog/low stratus as skies rapidly clear and winds become light early Tuesday, especially along the immediate lakeshore and at inland terminals east of KTOL/KFDY. Ceilings may begin to fall at southern terminals towards the end of the period as as warm front lifts north towards the local area. Southwesterly winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through about 03Z before becoming northwesterly at 10 knots or less. Light and variable winds will develop at most terminals by 09Z, but expect southeasterly flow to develop at western terminals after 18Z Tuesday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periodic showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday. Non-VFR may be possible late this week as another round of precipitation moves across the area. && .MARINE... A cold front sweeps east across Lake Erie this evening and overnight tonight. Southwesterly winds of about 10 to 15 knots veer to westerly with the front's passage before becoming light and variable by daybreak Tuesday. A lake breeze of 5 to 15 knots should develop late Tuesday morning through early evening as high pressure builds east. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots veer toward southerly Tuesday night as a warm front approaches the lake from the south. Waves remain 3 feet or less. Winds become southerly around 10 to 20 knots Wednesday following the northward passage of the warm front. Winds veer to westerly Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to an eastward cold front passage. Winds should then back toward southwesterly later Thursday as a high pressure ridge attempts to build from the south. Waves should trend 4 feet or less, with the largest waves expected in open waters. Conditions look to be marginal, at worst, for a Small Craft Advisory. Southwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 knots on Friday shift to westerly on Saturday with the eastward passage of a secondary cold front. Waves should trend 3 to 5 feet, especially later Friday morning into Saturday morning. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines SHORT TERM...Jaszka LONG TERM...Jaszka AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Jaszka