336 FXUS63 KDLH 110949 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 449 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Summary...A shortwave moving across the area this morning will eject quickly off to the northeast today. Attention then turns to the long duration spring storm that will move through the area for the middle part of the week, bringing mixed precipitation. A shortwave moving across the area this morning has brought a swirl of rain/snow mixture, currently mainly affecting the western half of the forecast area. It will continue to move northeast across and then out of the area this morning. We have not yet received any snowfall reports, but far northern MN has had all snow overnight, and it should remain snow until it pulls out of the area this morning. This afternoon steep low and mid level lapse rates along with lingering moisture should help produce afternoon showers, mainly along a low level convergence zone and some weak vorticity that slides through the area. Due to uncertainty related to where the showers will happen I am only carrying slight pops this afternoon and evening. They should be rain with surface temperatures above freezing, even with 850mb temps below zero. Model consensus is improving in the mid week spring storm, with confidence increasing in precipitation moving into the area on Tuesday, spreading across Tuesday night and Wednesday, then ending on Thursday. Considering how dry we have been lately, I would not be terribly surprised to see a delay in the arrival of the precipitation, but it should still move in by Tuesday evening. The latest models have been warmer than previous runs, resulting in more rain in this forecast and less snow. Light amounts of snow may fall Tuesday night where we have enough cold air aloft and the evaporative cooling effects should switch the precipitation over to snow, but the bulk of the snow should fall Wednesday night through Thursday night mainly across the northern half of the area. Even then we are not looking at large amounts of snow, though it is a bit too soon to have the best idea of snowfall amounts, and we will have to wait and see how things develop. After our midweek storm, model consensus remains poor, and have low confidence in the small pops and below normal temperatures in the forecast beyond Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 An upper level trough and area of low pressure will pass through the region tonight and Monday morning, bringing an area of rain and snow. INL/HIB will have the best chances for seeing reduced visibility in rain and snow, with MVFR to IFR ceilings likely at all terminals through the morning hours. The consistency of the snow will be of the wet and heavy variety. Winds will be breezy and variable through the morning as the low pressure center passes through, then will become west to northwesterly Monday morning behind the low. As the low passes through during the morning, conditions will become predominantly VFR for the remainder of the period. The exception is that there may be some convective showers developing Monday afternoon, which may result in some brief visibility restrictions at terminals, especially BRD/HYR. Couldn't rule out a brief rumble of thunder or two with these showers. && .MARINE... Issued at 448 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Winds are in the process of switching around to the southwest as a low pressure system moves across the lake early this morning. Winds will increase out of the southwest during the morning, then diminishing through the afternoon hours, allowing waves to also diminish. Conditions to remain hazardous to small craft through this afternoon and early evening depending on location, with Small Craft Advisories in effect. Rain and snow will also affect the lake this morning. A strong spring storm will affect the area starting Tuesday and continuing into late week. Strong winds will occur with this low, first easterly and eventually westerly as it moves off. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 30 44 35 / 60 10 60 100 INL 47 21 43 31 / 60 20 80 80 BRD 51 32 48 39 / 20 20 60 90 HYR 55 31 55 44 / 20 10 50 100 ASX 53 32 50 39 / 20 20 50 100 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011- 012-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010- 018-026. LS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146- 147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 148. && $$ DISCUSSION...LE AVIATION...LE/JDS MARINE...LE