836 FXUS65 KTFX 100532 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1125 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Aviation Section Updated. .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain and snow showers will move through the region through this evening, then change to all snow showers by Midnight. Temperatures will continue to cool each day over the next several days, with scattered snow showers continuing for Sunday and Monday. A spring storm will affect Central and Southwest MT Monday night and Tuesday, with widespread accumulating snowfall. && .UPDATE... Moisture continues to spread across the region. All-in-all, the forecast is working well. Relative Humidity (RH) values were a bit low in some areas, so I bumped them up, where appropriate. Aside from adjusting RH, I just tweaked a few elements to nudge them closer to actual observations. Decreased overnight lows a little bit, mostly through the valleys. Loaded observed wind and wind gust grids for 10/00Z and 10/01Z, and interpolated for a few hours our from there. Probability of Precipitation (POP) forecast looks good, but with changes in temperature and RH, etc, I reran snow amounts, as well as, Storm Totals. - Fogleman && .AVIATION... 1125 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022 (10/06Z TAF period) VFR conditions prevail overnight. There are scattered mid-level clouds across the region, some producing flurries, but with little to no precipitation reaching the surface. A cold front moves into North-central Montana Sunday afternoon. Periods of light snow with MVFR/IFR cigs are likely at times Sunday afternoon and evening associated with this front. Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022/ Tonight through Monday...Scattered rain/snow showers will continue to move southward through the region this evening, gradually changing to all snow showers by Midnight. Scattered snow showers will continue to move through the region on Sunday, along with even cooler afternoon temperatures. Overall snow amounts will generally be less than an inch from tonight through Sunday, with many areas melting on contact. Monday night through Wednesday...A strong spring storm will move through Central and Southwest MT from Monday night through early Wednesday morning. The heaviest precipitation will fall over Central and Southwest MT. The 12z runs have lowered QPF a bit over the region, but overall snow amounts look high enough for a winter storm watch over Central and Southwest MT. Some areas might end up with just a winter weather advisory if the QPF continues to decrease. Blowing snow will also be an impact. For areas along the Highway 2 corridor, from Cut Bank to Harlem, they will not receive much precipitation from this event, as the bulk of the precipitation stays south of Highway 2. Temperatures will be well below normal, with a few record low temperatures are possible. Thursday through Saturday...Expect drier conditions for Thursday but by Friday, the next spring storm system will be approaching the region. The GFS continues to be much colder/wetter, with widespread accumulating snow over much of North Central MT. Temperatures could start to warm a touch...but will still remain close to 20 degrees below normal. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 24 40 19 37 / 10 50 30 30 CTB 24 36 17 32 / 30 60 30 20 HLN 25 43 22 40 / 10 20 20 40 BZN 19 40 18 41 / 20 20 30 50 WYS 11 33 9 37 / 30 70 40 70 DLN 18 38 18 39 / 10 30 20 60 HVR 27 42 20 39 / 40 40 10 10 LWT 23 38 17 37 / 10 40 20 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday morning Broadwater...Cascade...Fergus...Judith Basin...Meagher. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night Beaverhead...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark... Gallatin...Jefferson...Madison...Southern Rocky Mountain Front. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls