892 FXUS63 KDDC 090500 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 ...Updated Short Term... .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 Satellite imagery at midnight confirms a perfectly clear sky across all of Kansas and all surrounding areas, in a very dry subsident atmosphere. Winds have finally relaxed to light and variable, and the combination of the clear sky, light winds, and dry ground will allow radiational cooling to send temperatures to near/just below freezing (28-32) by sunrise. Light southerly return flow is expected to begin before sunrise, which will reduce the efficiency of the radiational cooling. Strong warming is expected Saturday, with 850 mb thermal fields supporting afternoon max temperatures in the lower 80s at most locations. The exceptions will be upper 70s far northeast, and mid 80s adjacent to Oklahoma. Return flow and S/SW winds will be strongest across the eastern and southeast zones, where gusts of 25-30 mph are expected. Winds will be much lighter across the remainder of SW KS, with northwest extent, offering a welcome break from the Kansas wind machine. Maintained 0% sky grids through the day. Saturday night/Sunday morning will be much milder, with very warm 850 mb temperatures (00z NAM 25C at DDC at 1 AM) and the lower atmosphere remaining mixed with a modest low level jet and elevated winds. A surface cyclone near Baca county Colorado 7 pm Saturday is expected to phase east across the northern CWA overnight, reaching near HYS at 7 am Sunday. SE winds early in the evening will veer to SWly and then NWly as this occurs, and the associated dry cold front enters the NW zones around sunrise. With this setup, all locations are expected to hold in the 40s through the night, with SE zones remaining above 50 through sunrise Sunday. Dry cold front will progress quickly through SW KS early Sunday, followed by elevated north winds averaging 20-30 mph for the first half of Sunday. Cool advection will be modest, but it will be enough to trim afternoon temperatures closer to seasonal normals, in the lower 70s. Maintained max temperatures near 80 adjacent to Oklahoma. Still very few clouds, and another very pleasant spring day for the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 A surface low will shift across the CO/KS line early Sunday morning, dragging a surface cold front south that looks like will stall out over the southern half of the area or into OK. A cooler regime in the upper 60s/70s will be the result for most of the area, with uncertainty lingering in how warm the southern counties may reach (similar to Saturday) which could easily be in the low 80s once again - for locations like Liberal to Medicine Lodge. If the cool surge is a little stronger, the entire area along the Oklahoma line may be relegated to the 70s Sunday afternoon. There are large differences in the synoptic evolution between the Canadian/ECMWF global models vs the GEFS ensemble sets for the incoming system to impact the central Plains around late Tuesday through Thursday. Regardless, the pattern supports a hot dry, probably high fire risk southwest flow adiabatic heating setup on Tuesday, before a cold front is driven through the region with a strongly subsident westerly dry air intrusion. A very windy period is likely in that timeframe with either setup. Most of the ensemble QPF fields are either dry, or very light with trace to 0.01-0.05 amounts given the overall moisture starved environment and no real moisture return ahead of it. Of greater concern for a more "high- end" potential of high wind event is the ECMWF ensemble extreme forecast index which highlights central and north central Kansas in the very high values above 0.8-0.9 at 144-168 hours. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF cycle, with VFR/SKC and finally much less wind at all airports. Light and variable winds currently will trend light south by 12z Sat. After 15z Sat, S/SW winds will increase, but modestly, with gusts of 22-25 kts at LBL/DDC/HYS. Less wind is expected at GCK. Winds will trend light SEly around sunset/00z Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 30 82 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 30 83 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 36 85 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 30 86 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 28 76 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 P28 32 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046- 065-066-078>081-087>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Turner LONG TERM...Russell AVIATION...Turner