124 FXUS64 KSJT 081927 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Expect another night with good radiational cooling conditions, as winds become light and variable overnight. Low temperatures will not be quite as cold as what we saw this morning, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s. A few low lying locations could drop into the mid to upper 30s. Warmer temperatures are forecast Saturday, with highs back above seasonal normal. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s for most locations. A tightening surface pressure gradient across the region will result in busty southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 The main concern with the long term forecast will continue to be the possibility for periodic critical fire weather conditions through the middle of next week. Zonal upper level flow will persist through Monday night, keeping our temperatures warm in the upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday and Monday, with breezy south to southwest winds. From Monday night into Tuesday, the pattern will change as an upper level trough moves into the western half of the CONUS, bringing southwest flow over our area. However, long range models disagree significantly on the evolution of the upper level low as it moves into the central U. S. The ECMWF is farther south and slower with the movement of the low. Neither model produces a lot of precipitation, but the GFS does have at least some precipitation generally south of I-20 from late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon as shortwave energy moves through in southwest flow, and a dryline/Pacific front provides low level lift. The EC, on the other hand, is almost completely dry for the area. Will continue to show at least a slight chance for showers/storms along the eastern edge of our forecast area from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Models continue to diverge through the second half of the week, but slightly cooler temperatures and dry weather are expected. Wednesday could be a critical day as far as fire weather goes if the EC solution of gusty west winds, warm temperatures, and low humidities affect the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Gusty north to northwest winds will become light and variable this evening. Expect south winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid morning Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will continue for locations east of Abilene to Coleman line through early this evening. On Saturday, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible across all of West Central Texas as RH values drop to 10 to 15 percent and 20 foot winds increase to 18 to 20 mph. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to Red Flag Warning and is in effect from Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. More of the same for Sunday, as near critical to critical fire weather conditiions are expected across most of the area as 20 foot southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 mph and minimum RH values drop to 5 to 15 percent. In addition, high temperatures will be well above normal, in the low to mid 90s. Some uncertainty continues on the pattern for the first half of next work week, but a continuation of near critical to critical fire weather conditions looks likely. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 43 87 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 43 87 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 43 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 38 88 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 48 87 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 46 84 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 43 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for Brown- Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones- Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher- Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...Daniels