544 
FXUS65 KFGZ 071551
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
851 AM MST Thu Apr 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect northeast winds to continue today, lighter
winds on Friday, and then strengthening southwest winds over the
weekend. Daytime temperatures will be warm for the next three
days, peaking on Saturday, a bit cooler Sunday. Southwest winds
become stronger for Monday and Tuesday, with even cooler
temperatures and chance of unsettled weather heading into the
start of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...A seasonably warm and beautiful Thursday is in the 
forecast for northern Arizona. Look for temperatures in the low to
mid 60s across the high terrain with highs in the mid 70s to 80s
for the lower elevations. Afternoon breezes will be less than the
past few days as well making for a nice afternoon to get outside
and enjoy the warmth. Colder weather is returning early next week,
so enjoy it while it lasts! The current forecast is on track with
no updates needed this morning. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /400 AM MST/...An amplified ridge to our west
will collapse and move eastward Friday and Saturday. Being on the
eastern edge of the ridge today will keep some low-level easterly
flow in place and prevent the full extent of potential warming
along and north of the Mogollon Rim. Temperatures for Arizona
will peak Friday and Saturday, despite hght falls, as flow turns
southwesterly and mixing deepens. We expect daytime highs 10-15
degrees above normal by Saturday.

Hghts continue to fall Sunday and Monday as a long-wave trough
forms over the western United States. Initially, this will result
in some cooling and a major uptick in wind speeds for our area.

The trough moves through the western United States on Tuesday,
with a possibility of a High Wind Warning event for parts of our
area. As far as precipitation, models trends have become more
progressive and keep QPF mainly north of Arizona. This is quite
the change from 24 hours ago and it would be wise to follow a
blended solution. This approach keeps unsettled weather in the
area, along with cooler temperatures, for next Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions under mostly 
clear skies are expected through TAF period. Surface winds 
5-10G15-20KTS through the afternoon becoming lighter after 03z. 
Locally breezy northeast winds will continue along and south of 
the high terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy northeast winds Thursday before
becoming lighter on Friday. Clear skies, warming temperatures, and 
dry conditions are expected Friday as well. 

Saturday through Monday...Very warm and dry weather are forecast for 
Saturday with winds shifting to out of the southwest. Southwest 
winds will increase Sunday, becoming very strong Monday with gusts 
around 35-45 mph possible before the chance of rain and snow showers 
move into the region late Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...JM


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff