676 FXUS63 KJKL 040838 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 438 AM EDT Mon Apr 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 438 AM EDT MON APR 4 2022 Surface high pressure is departing east of the Appalachians this morning, and a weak low pressure system is moving eastward across the Midwest. Clear skies to start the night gave way to increasing mid and high clouds overnight. With good radiating conditions present for most of the night, temperatures were able to tumble to around freezing thus far in the coldest valleys, and will likely settle around 30 with widespread frost. A Frost Advisory was already in place for most of the area and has been allowed to continue early this morning. Our clouds are due to moist flow off the gulf is being lifted as it heads north into the aforementioned storm system. The moisture/clouds will get caught in the mid/upper level flow and be pulled eastward over our area today. This should result in virga and moistening from the top down today into tonight. Our dry low levels should keep the area mostly rain free today, but there is a better chance of rain eventually breaking through tonight, especially in our northern counties. An upper level wave currently over the southwest CONUS will progress east and move through our region on Tuesday. It will provide additional support aloft and likely result in rain for most of the area by evening. Temperatures both today and Monday will be contingent upon the extent and density of clouds. That being the case, thinning could result in warmer temps than currently forecast, and thickening could hold us cooler. Either way, it will be milder tonight due to clouds and higher dew points. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 341 AM EDT MON APR 4 2022 The extended will be quite active, with several periods of precipitation and significant temperatures changes on tap. Widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms will be moving across the are to begin the extended Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This initial round of rain will taper off quickly, and should be out of eastern Kentucky by early Wednesday morning. However, another more robust round of showers and storms is expected to affect the forecast area on Wednesday. After a few showers move into our western counties early Wednesday morning, a more significant period of rain is expected for the afternoon and evening hours, as a strong cold front begins moving through the region. By Wednesday, we can expect widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to moving through eastern KY. A few of the storms could be strong, with gusty winds the primary issue of concern. The latest model data is supporting good instability and strong winds aloft to support thunderstorm formation and maintenance on Wednesday. The storms could last well into Wednesday night, as the front moves through, as their will be plenty of moisture and lift available. This second round of rain should come to an end early Thursday morning. Once the cold front has moved past, its parent trough of low pressure aloft should begin moving across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions Thursday night and Friday. This part of the system is expected to bring scattered to numerous rain showers to us to end the week. The low will be slow moving, so precip chances could linger through late in the weekend. Once colder air begins filtering into the area Friday night, we could see a bit of snow mixing with the rain around the area. This final round of precipitation should taper off during the day on Saturday, and be out of the area by late Saturday evening. A combination of light winds, clearing skies, and the invasion of colder air, may lead to areas of frost late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, especially in our deeper and most sheltered valleys. Temperatures in the extended will be below normal on average. The exception to this rule should be Wednesday, when we may see highs rise into the 70s for most of the area. The rest of the period will feature daily highs in the 50s and the low to mid 60s. Saturday may even see highs as low as the upper 40s to lower 50s around the area after a large trough pushes off to the east of the area. Nightly lows will vary from the low to mid 30s on the coldest nights, to the upper 40s to lower 50s on the warmest night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT MON APR 4 2022 VFR conditions are still forecast through the TAF period. Mid/high level ceilings will develop overnight and then lower to about 5-7K ft AGL by 21Z and remain there. Virga is expected during the day Monday, with some light rain perhaps making it to the ground in the evening. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts during the period-- out of the southwest during the day, and variable otherwise. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...HAL