698 FXUS63 KFGF 040325 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1025 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Light showers continue to push out of our SE, still impacting some areas around Wadena and Park Rapids. Radar Returns are moving from the NW into the Devils Lake Basin, but not seeing any reports of precipitation hitting the ground. No impacts are expected with either. Forecast is on track. UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Snow continues to push out of the area to our southeast. Winds will be light and variable this evening, with clouds lingering. Some patchy fog is possible in the Devils Lake Basin early MOnday morning due to the combination of light winds and temperatures falling close to the dewpoint. Forecast is on track otherwise. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 Impacts from accumulating snowfall in our south should diminish over the next hour as organized banding breaks up, with additional lighter accumulation still possible through early evening. Main organized band has broken apart as the mid level shortwave trough/vort max has transition farther south and less organized pockets of light (maybe moderate) snowfall are now in place over our CWa. This trend is matching well with short range/high resolution guidance and should continue through the afternoon as this wave moves further east-southeast. Greatest impacts are likley over, and unless we see reorganization of some of the moderate pockets currently weakening the Winter Weather Advisory should be good to expire as scheduled at 4pm. Lighter snow would then remain possible across our southeast into early evening with the back edge of this wave, but drier air will still have an impact on the northern fringe and organized forcing/instability will tend to remain south. A weaker shortwave in Canada is shown to quickly move east, and there is a signal for additional light showers/flurries into the Devils Lake Basin this evening. No impacts would be anticipated with that feature. Monday-Monday night: Westerly then southwesterly flow aloft and increasing southerly BL flow should result in warmer and breezy conditions Monday into Monday night, and consensus favors highs around 50 or warmer for many locations. Lows Monday night are expected to remain above freezing due to continued WAA and mixing, so as precipitation chances increase late Monday night rain is currently favored. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 A mainly rain event is still on schedule for the middle of the upcoming new week, resulting in what appear to be minimal impacts over the forecast area. For Tue aftn through early Thu, WPC data is painting one half to a full inch of QPF over the forecast area (somewhere between operational ECMWF and GFS). ECMWF ensembles indicate a virtual certainty of 0.1 inch event QPF, with the odds for at least a half inch of liquid pegging 70 to 90 percent. The GEFS is in the 50 to 70 percent region. Upper low will be swinging across the southern part of the area, question being how much deformation pcpn mainly NW of the low will eventually transition to snow. ECMWF and GEFS ensembles say not much, with the event probs of at least 3 inches of frozen matter less than 20 percent in and around the valley, increasing to between 50 and 70 percent west and east of the Red River Valley, owing to the impact of higher elevations on pcpn type. Nevertheless, warm ground and near sfc air temps should probably hold down any actual accumulations. The bottom line is that it does appear most of the pcpn during this time will fall as rain, with the usual diurnal early spring switch to overnight snow or a wintry mix. With regards to temps, average to slightly above will prevail; we are looking at a stretch with highs in the 40s and then the glorious 50s as ridging kicks in for next weekend. Lows will hover within a few degrees of freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sun Apr 3 2022 VFR to MVFR conditions expected for Monday. Exception being DVL, which could see some patchy fog in the morning that would temporarily drop visibilities below MVFR. Winds will increase in the afternoon and evening across the area, and will not calm down in the evening, staying sustained out of the south at 10-20 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...AK SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...WJB AVIATION...AK